老農民版夜神月

  五級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：02 F ( 05 P )
名稱：Yasa

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 12 月 09 日 19 時
JTWC升格日期:2020 年 12 月 12 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 12 月 13 日 21 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 00 月 24 日 12 時
登陸地點　　：斐濟

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)：135 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：140 kt ( Super TY )
海平面最低氣壓   ：899 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
91P.INVEST.15kts.995mb.13.5S.172.5E

以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 05P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 23.9S 178.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC判定於20/06Z已成為副熱帶氣旋

SH, 05, 2020122000,   , BEST,   0, 233S, 1781W,  50,  985, TS,  50, NEQ,    0,   65,   60,   45, 1005,  215,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,       YASA,  ,
SH, 05, 2020122006,   , BEST,   0, 238S, 1784W,  45,  989, SS,  34, NEQ,  125,  165,  120,   85, 1004,  200,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,       YASA,  ,

Gale Warning 075 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 201258 UTC.

LOW, FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA [992HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 24.0S 179.0W AT
201200UTC. MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.

GALE AREA MOVING WITH LOW.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 074.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1330Z再評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 05P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 23.9S 178.7E, APPROXIMATELY 382 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA,
FIJI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM,
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A 200704Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
(20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL (25C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER
LEVEL MID-LATITUTE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED
FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

蜜露

這個是今年南半球最強的氣旋，可能比半年前登陸萬那杜的Ｈarold還強一點







不過如果照南半球風季規則，Yasa算是7月後2021的風季，Ｈarold是上一季7月前屬於2020風季

老農民版夜神月

JTWC06Z仍認定其維持於TS,就Yasa能撐到什麼時候了

SH, 05, 2020122006, , BEST, 0, 238S, 1784W, 45, 989, TS,

dom

JTWC00Z發佈FW

老農民版夜神月

JTWC則認為05P.Yasa將於未來一天內轉化為副熱帶風暴

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 23.7S 178.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 24.5S 179.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 178.2W.
19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE
CENTER OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 191800Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND A 50 KNOT 191736Z CIMSS SATCON AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. TC 05P HAS TRACKED STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG, AND INCREASING, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS DISPLACED LIMITED REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE AND CORE
TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF TC 05P ARE STEADILY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL.
TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE STEERING
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM
COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAVORABLE
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT
THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, OFFSETTING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF
SUSTAINED, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEAR-TERM
TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
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