(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.8N
160.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, BUT STILL BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 150827Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS INCREASING FLARING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIORNMENT
WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS
AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE, A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 160.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 315NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 142248Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAKLY-DEFINED,
FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE BROAD LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAIR DIFFLUENCE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE,
A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
