簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-5-19 16:57
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(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARPLY TURNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE WRAPPING INTO THE SUSPECTED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. A 190224Z OSCAT PARTIAL PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A 190336Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINED IN THE LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTH AND A RELATIVELY DRIER UPPER-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER GUAM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER GUAM PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL RESIDES NEAR THE DATELINE WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC ITSELF IS UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE AT 10-15 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
目前94W的評級以來到了MEDIUM 不排除晚間至明天有機會發布TCFA或升格為TD另外，目前94W的窩度已經泛紅，但型態為橢圓形，但窩度由一大早的小小黃黃變成現在的又大又紅了 顯示其正在發展目前94W 根據JTWC預報 目前93W和94W強度仍然為15kts 但94W氣壓已降低至1008mb了 且94W的對流鞏固的較93W好93W目前對流似乎受日夜變化 使對流顯得較為薄弱。
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