稍早JTWC升格 TS MFR 仍維持TD
底層仍處於高低分離狀態 有待改善

升格為「熱帶擾動 2 號」，預計轉化後影響模里西斯和留尼旺。



WTIO30 FMEE 251224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/2/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  2
2.A POSITION 2014/11/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 69.9 E
(TEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/26 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/11/26 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/11/27 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/11/27 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/11/28 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2014/11/28 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/29 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2014/11/30 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI =2.0+
UNDERGOING A EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT, SYSTEM SHOWS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION EAST OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
LAST NIGHT ASCAT SWATH REVEALS AN ELONGATED (AXED WEST-EAST) CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION , LOCALLY REACH
ING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT.
SINCE 09Z, LLCC IS BETTER DEFINED AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY (SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARDS).
IT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY BECOME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS SUBTROPI
CAL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH, AND TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP GLOBALLY NORTH-EASTERLY THEN NORTHERLY SHE
ARED.
A TEMPORARILY RELAX OF THIS CONSTRAINT ON THURSDAY (UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS) COULD ALLOW
AN INTENSIFICATION UP TO TROPICAL  STORM STAGE (LIKELIHOOD IS AT ABOUT 50 PERCENT THANKS TO EUROPE
AN ENSEMBLE).
AT MEDIUM RANGE, AS SYSTEM LOST ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, IT COULD DEEPEN MORE SIGNIFICAN
TLY.