簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-11-28 01:07
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JTWC在昨天下午發布TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 270730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOIN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 66.1E TO 16.6S 59.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 64.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
66.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 64.7E, APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270514Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 270513Z
ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280730Z.
//
MFR不再看好發展為中等熱帶風暴
ZCZC 250
WTIO30 FMEE 271214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2
2.A POSITION 2014/11/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 64.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/28 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2014/11/28 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/11/29 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2014/11/29 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2014/11/30 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2014/11/30 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/12/01 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5+ AND CI = 1.5+
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED CLEARLY FLUCTUATING AND SHIFTED WEST O
F THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE DUE TO EFFECT OF A RATHER STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR (30
KT ANALYSED BY CIMSS AT 09Z). THE TEMPERATURE OF THE CLOUD TOP IS WARMING.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS
SOUTH AND SHOULD TRACK ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ON A WEST-S
OUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL
THIS TERM. AFTER THAT, THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOW A HIGH SPREAD FOR THE TRACK.
FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED TO A MID-LAT
ITUDES TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO CONSISTS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NORTH OF MAS
CARENES. SO, THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE.
ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH-EASTERLY SHEARED UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE A TEMPORARILY SLIGHT RELAX OF THIS CONSTRAINT. DURING THE SAME TIME, THE L
OW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BECOME POOR EQUATORWARD AND SST WILL DECREASE. THE WINDOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT I
NTENSIFICATION SEEMS TOO SHORT. SATURDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGA
IN WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND SS
T CONTINUING TO DECREASE.
THE RATHER STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK FORECAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE INT
ENSITY FORECAST TOO .
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUE REGULAR BULLETINS.
NNNN
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