這隻不知是不是東太生成的颶風中，最東邊生成的？也是最靠近陸地生成的？
前陣子我在統計大西洋的，發現這種近岸生成的颶風似乎不少

在登陸前 NHC給出命名
不過大概就是TS封頂 東太命名風暴連續達到颶風強度大概就斷在這了

這東西已成了20E
風速更到了35kts
已命名為Trudy

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...

92E 目前結構還是有一點鬆散
不過最近幾個小時對流有爆發的跡象
環境大致看起來也還不錯
短期的話發展上應該是沒有太大問題
NHC 降評 Medium 但 JTWC 稍早卻發佈TCFA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southwestward for several hundred miles continues to produce a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Slow development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while the
trough moves slowly northward or northwestward toward the coast of
southern Mexico.  Regardless of the potential for tropical cyclone
formation, heavy rainfall and localized flooding associated
with this disturbance could produce flash flooding and mudslides in
portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated
terrain, beginning this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 170630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 98.7W TO 16.8N 99.4W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170600Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 98.7W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.5N 98.7W,
215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
170419Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A
170418Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180630Z.//
NNNN