20E.Trudy 近岸爆發登陸墨西哥

Meow · 2014-10-14 23:25

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-11-8 10:48 編輯

  熱帶風暴
編號：20E
名稱：Trudy

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 10 月 14 日 23 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 10 月 18 日 11 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 10 月 19 日 18 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥格雷羅州阿卡普爾科

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速： 50 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓： 999 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
92E.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.11.0N.91.0W

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

CX723-A330 · 2014-10-14 23:39

1. Cloudiness and showers remain limited in association with a broad
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the
coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while the low moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

NHC評Low
話說如果這92E發展成功將會命名為Trudy
而此名字在整個東太歷史中只在1990年用過，是東太少數用過的名字之一

krichard2011 · 2014-10-16 17:25

這隻螺旋性一直都很不錯
最近這幾個小時
對流也有明顯爆發起來的趨勢
NHC 評級 HIGH 好像也有一段時間了...

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with an elongated area of low pressure is located a few
hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for the gradual development of this system
into a tropical depression over the next couple of days as it moves
northwestward or northward toward the coast of Mexico.  Regardless
of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, heavy rains will spread
across southwestern Mexico over the next few days.  These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

krichard2011 · 2014-10-17 15:59

92E 目前結構還是有一點鬆散
不過最近幾個小時對流有爆發的跡象
環境大致看起來也還不錯
短期的話發展上應該是沒有太大問題
NHC 降評 Medium 但 JTWC 稍早卻發佈TCFA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southwestward for several hundred miles continues to produce a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Slow development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while the
trough moves slowly northward or northwestward toward the coast of
southern Mexico. Regardless of the potential for tropical cyclone
formation, heavy rainfall and localized flooding associated
with this disturbance could produce flash flooding and mudslides in
portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated
terrain, beginning this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 170630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 98.7W TO 16.8N 99.4W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170600Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 98.7W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.5N 98.7W,
215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
170419Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A
170418Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180630Z.//
NNNN

CX723-A330 · 2014-10-18 10:57

這東西已成了20E
風速更到了35kts
已命名為Trudy

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...

... · 2014-10-18 11:14

在登陸前 NHC給出命名
不過大概就是TS封頂東太命名風暴連續達到颶風強度大概就斷在這了

Meow · 2014-10-18 17:40

儘管 Trudy 要登陸了，NHC 分析發現 Trudy 正在快速增強，可能在半天之內成為颶風，因此發佈了颶風注意報。

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 16.2N  98.8W 50 KT  60 MPH
12H  18/1800Z 16.4N  98.6W 55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
24H  19/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W 35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  19/1800Z 16.6N  98.5W 20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Meow · 2014-10-18 23:02

Trudy 已在 10Z 登陸阿卡普爾科，因此 09Z 那一報是巔峰了。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181451
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center
of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around
1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and
satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted
by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt
are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern
portion of the circulation.

Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The
steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for little motion.  Since Trudy is already inland
over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the
cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little,
torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple
of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of
southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.2N  98.8W 40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
12H  19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W 30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W 25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W 20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila