這論壇不知道怎麼了，只參考美國資料卻無視就在台灣旁邊的日本。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 103E WNW 10 KT.

美國不再觀測，但日本仍認為是熱低，越南境內。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 104E WEST 10 KT.

JTWC再降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
111.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 107.4E, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) STREAMING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM. THE ANTICYCLONE IS CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE TRACK SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST
OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF THE LLCC TO THE COAST OF VIETNAM,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

03Z風場掃出部分35KT風力
中心現在在北部灣
未來持續偏西移動並登陸越南

CMA : TD
中央气象台28日11时发布热带低压预报：

热带低压已于今天上午在北部湾海面生成，11点钟其中心位于广西北海西南方125公里的海面上，就是北纬20.6度、东经108.4度，中心附近最大风力有7级（16米/秒），中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计，该低压将以每小时30公里左右的速度快速向西偏北方向移动，逐渐向越南北部沿海靠近，强度维持或略有加强，并将于今天傍晚前后在上述沿海登陆，登陆后迅速减弱。

28日14时至29日14时，北部湾、琼州海峡、广西沿海、南海西北部、广东西南部及其沿海、海南沿海将有7-8级大风，其中北部湾的部分海域阵风可达9-10级；广东西南部、广西中南部、海南、云南南部等地的部分地区有大雨，广东西南部沿海、广西南部、海南南部、云南东南部等地的部分地区有暴雨，广西南部沿海局地有大暴雨（100～150毫米）。

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
112.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WHILE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN LIMITED AND
FLARING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION, BUT CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HAINAN ISLAND, WHICH WILL MOST
LIKELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

還是無法有效整合
中心即將通過海南島

JMA升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 113E NW SLOWLY.

初步看來移速過快可能導致整合稍有難度

其實99W的移速應不算快 (CWB:10 Km/hr),只是其距離登陸海南的時間應約不足兩天,而其季風低壓的性質令整合更費時,加上其附近風切不弱,中心組織散亂,故我對其未來發展並不樂觀.