martin191919

  熱帶低壓  
    編號　：99 W
    名稱    ：無

  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 08 月 27 日 10  時
    升格熱低日期：2014 年 08 月 27 日 14  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 29 日 14  時
　登陸地點　　：越南 海防市與太平市交界

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速
　日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：   15    m/s (   30 KT )
　 海平面最低氣壓    ：1004  百帕

  討論帖圖片  
99W.INVEST-15kts-NAmb-16.2N-114.1E


以上資料來自 : JMA、颱風論壇整理製作

martin191919

JMA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 117E NNW SLOWLY.

J18

南海中部稍早有測到30kt的風速!

戴廷翰

不仔細看還以為是熱低壓

愚輝

其實99W的移速應不算快 (CWB:10 Km/hr),只是其距離登陸海南的時間應約不足兩天,而其季風低壓的性質令整合更費時,加上其附近風切不弱,中心組織散亂,故我對其未來發展並不樂觀.

t02436

JMA升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 113E NW SLOWLY.

初步看來移速過快可能導致整合稍有難度

martin191919

Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.3N 112.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 122 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT FORMATIVE,
BANDING FEEDING IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE LLCC CAN BE
DISCERNED FROM A 271151Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH AND NORTHEAST OF RIDGE AXES
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DO NOT
DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE WEAK CONSOLIDATION AND ITS IMMINENT
LANDFALL INTO HAINAN, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
112.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WHILE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN LIMITED AND
FLARING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION, BUT CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HAINAN ISLAND, WHICH WILL MOST
LIKELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

還是無法有效整合
中心即將通過海南島