取消評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
84.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

降評Low
中心已經登陸 基本上難以發展

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
86.3EIMATELE, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BRAHMAPUR, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST INDIAN COAST. THE EIR ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION DEEPENED WITH IMPROVED BANDING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS
SPIKE IN INTENSIFICATION WAS CAPTURED ON A 251523Z SCATTEROMETRY
PASS THAT SHOWED ELEVATED WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN-FLAGGED WIND
BARBS. BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. IN VIEW OF THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL
WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCE OF RECURVING BACK OVER WATER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

取消TCFA 降評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 91.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN
A 222238Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RENDERING THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT TIME FRAME UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW
220730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND
AND CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR RELAXES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.

對流還是沒辦法有效整合

另外IMD也在剛剛升格BOB02

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST Dated: 21.05.2014
Bulletin No.: BOB02/2014/01
Sub: Depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed
over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 21st May 2014 near
latitude 15.50 N and longitude 90.50 E, about 490 km north-northwest of Port Blair, 620 km westsouthwest
of Yangon (Myanmar) and 680 km south-southwest of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh). It may
intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. It would move near northwards for
some time and then north-northeastwards towards Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coast
during next 48 hrs.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall would occur at most places with isolated heavy
to very heavy falls over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs and isolated heavy
rainfall thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and
off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs. Sea condition would be rough to very rough
along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the same period.
Fishermen along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into
sea during next 48 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 21st May, 2014.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/indian_1400672770.pdf

JTWC發TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
91.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 210454Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 210357Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOT) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERARE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.