JTWC：DOWNGRADED TO LOW
                                        THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S
39.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 36.6E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATING, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 300633Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A MAXIMUM
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST CREATING
MODERATE LEVELS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
LLCC. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.

JTWC : CANCELLED TCFA
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
41.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 39.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM NORTHEAST
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEFINED YET FULLY-EXPOSED AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 291130Z NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES
WEAK, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
A 290908Z OCEANSAT IMAGE INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS
CANCELS REF A.//

91S現在所處的位置 水氣還算足夠
風切也是微弱狀態(雖然旁邊頗強...
不過現在一整個想說...好漂亮的LLCC呀

JTWC : TCFA
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

MFR編號09F
預估未來朝向南非及莫三比克一帶前進
目前強度MFR定為熱帶擾動  上看...額有沒有這麼悲觀  熱帶低壓

除了螺旋相當明顯之外
整體對流開始爆發
以現在了樣子就已經很不錯了
環流還算小有利於結構的整合
如果真的發展起來 強度應該不會弱
但前提是不能太早接觸陸地...