t02436

  基本資料     
    編號　　　　：91 S ( 09 R)
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 01 月 26日 15  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 02 月 01日 14  時
　登陸地點　　：暫無
91S.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-9.6S-48.8E

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8S 47.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE
BEGUN TO WRAP INTO A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPER CELLS OF CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS IS DEPICTED ON A 261634Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE
IMAGE AS A CURVED LINE OF FRAGMENTED ELEMENTS WITH HIGH-REFLECTIVITY
CORES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH
A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP, THERE IS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA AND ALONG THE SYSTEMS PROJECTED TRACK (28-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TEMPERED ONLY BY THE ABSENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

除了螺旋相當明顯之外
整體對流開始爆發
以現在了樣子就已經很不錯了
環流還算小有利於結構的整合
如果真的發展起來 強度應該不會弱
但前提是不能太早接觸陸地...

t02436

升評Medium
MFR還沒有反應

螺旋明顯外對流加強許多
惟獨渦度還沒有泛紅現象

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 47.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 45.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 270255Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE
IDENTIFIABLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AS THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jwpk9899

MFR編號09F
預估未來朝向南非及莫三比克一帶前進
目前強度MFR定為熱帶擾動  上看...額有沒有這麼悲觀  熱帶低壓

martin191919

JTWC : TCFA
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 42.4E TO 19.2S 38.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 281238Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

jwpk9899

91S現在所處的位置 水氣還算足夠
風切也是微弱狀態(雖然旁邊頗強...
不過現在一整個想說...好漂亮的LLCC呀

martin191919

JTWC : CANCELLED TCFA
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
41.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 39.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM NORTHEAST
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEFINED YET FULLY-EXPOSED AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 291130Z NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES
WEAK, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
A 290908Z OCEANSAT IMAGE INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS
CANCELS REF A.//