重新評Low~~

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2N 79.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 42 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TC 01B HAS
MOVED BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF PALK STRAIT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS
COMPACT WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM PERSISTS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THOUGH DYNAMIC
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE DEVELOPMENT PAST THE 35-KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD, CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE A 25 KNOT
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

LLCC幾乎露出來了
明顯高低分離
這種樣子居然有40kts.... = =

中心嚴重裸露
周圍的垂直風切偏強
可能會抑制這個系統的發展
能否命名 還有待觀察...

美國已編熱帶氣旋 01B，IMD 同時也編為低壓 BOB 01，成為 2014 年北半球首個熱帶氣旋。

結構持續轉佳...
這一報升TCFA

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 84.6E TO 9.7N 80.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
040230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
84.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
84.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 040001Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 031810Z OSCAT PASS
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 86.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031558Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.