前方風切很強
已嚴重裸奔~~
看起來應該已經可以跟他說聲再見了

好了 基本上呢可能要逐漸地跟他說再見囉
MFR最新一報認為他減弱囉

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  1

2.A POSITION 2013/10/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 63.1 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL
ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE:  SE:  SW: 190 NW:




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/28 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
24H: 2013/10/28 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
36H: 2013/10/29 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
48H: 2013/10/29 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
60H: 2013/10/30 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING

MFR表示目前就是顛峰...已不再上望中級熱帶風暴了
預估未來將開始減弱

WTIO30 FMEE 270625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  1
2.A POSITION 2013/10/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 63.3 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL
THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/27 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
24H: 2013/10/28 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
36H: 2013/10/28 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2013/10/29 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
60H: 2013/10/29 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- CI=2.5-

已升格為01S, 南半球風季正式開始, 但是NRL跟fnmoc沒有顯示, 難怪沒人注意...
裸露問題已經改善了很多

從可兼光跟底層掃描來看
中心裸露的情形應該是還好
中心附近垂直風切還好 不過南北夾擊

MFR最新的一報認為有機會增強到中級熱帶風暴(相當於老J的TS下限)
不過強度只是勉強達到而已 而且目前中心甚至有裸露的現象
可能會影響到他未來是否能成為南印度洋2013-14風季的第一旋

WTIO30 FMEE 260642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  1
2.A POSITION 2013/10/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 67.9 E
(TEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE:  SE: 220 SW: 150 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/26 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/10/27 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/10/27 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/10/28 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2013/10/28 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
72H: 2013/10/29 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/10/30 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5-