01S 裸奔直趨馬達加斯加

t02436 · 2013-10-21 06:31

  熱帶風暴
編號　　　　：01 S

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2013 年 10 月 21 日 06  時
消散日期　　：2013 年 10 月 31 日
登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加安齊拉納納
  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
法國氣象局(MFR)： 30  kts ( TD )
美國海軍 (JTWC) ： 35   kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓： 996 百帕
  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
95S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-8.3S-85.8E

-------------------------------
衛星影像

以上資料來自 : JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇編輯製作

krichard2011 · 2013-10-21 20:11

JTWC評級Low螺旋性還挺明顯的
附近風切稍強不過有逐漸減弱的趨勢

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEEDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MSI ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE A 35-KNOT SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA IN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011 · 2013-10-25 22:26

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-10-26 11:22 編輯

JTWC發表TCFA有望成為今年南半球入春首旋
以下為報文...THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 68.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 68.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ACONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVEDCONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 251729Z METOP-A 89 GHZIMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVEBAND PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 251728Z ASCAT IMAGEINDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS NOW PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHLIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

donaldfan · 2013-10-26 01:20

本帖最後由 donaldfan 於 2013-10-26 01:21 編輯

MFR晚上時候已經升格熱帶擾動第1號了
這系統為西南印度洋颱風季揭開序幕
但不知道能否命名呢..

WTIO30 FMEE 251241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2013/10/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.2 S / 69.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/26 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2013/10/26 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/10/27 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2013/10/27 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2013/10/28 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2013/10/28 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/10/29 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5+ CI=1.5+
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED AT ABOUT 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF DIEGO-GARCIA.
IT IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT. THE CLOUD ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED AGAIN FOR THE LAST NIGHT, BUT CONVECTION REMAINS
FLUCTUATING. THE TRADE INFLOW SUPPLIES THE LOW, BUT THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS WEAK EQUATORWARD. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER
GOOD UNDER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. ON THIS TRACK, THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE GOOD WITH WEAK WIND-SHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE POLEWARD. HOWEVER, THE LOWER LAYERS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER UNFAVORABLE WITH A DECREASING CONVERGENCE
EQUATORWARD AND COOLER SST (26-27 DEGREES C). NETHERTHELESS THE LOW
SHOULD DEEPEN DURING THIS TWO-DAY WINDOW.
FROM SUNDAY EVENING, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-WESTWARD WIND-SHEAR. THEN THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP ON A WESTWARD TRACK.
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS

jwpk9899 · 2013-10-26 19:40

MFR最新的一報認為有機會增強到中級熱帶風暴(相當於老J的TS下限)
不過強度只是勉強達到而已而且目前中心甚至有裸露的現象
可能會影響到他未來是否能成為南印度洋2013-14風季的第一旋

WTIO30 FMEE 260642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2013/10/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 67.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 220 SW: 150 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/26 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/10/27 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/10/27 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/10/28 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2013/10/28 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
72H: 2013/10/29 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/10/30 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5-

krichard2011 · 2013-10-26 20:21

從可兼光跟底層掃描來看
中心裸露的情形應該是還好
中心附近垂直風切還好不過南北夾擊

frintezza · 2013-10-27 13:47

已升格為01S, 南半球風季正式開始, 但是NRL跟fnmoc沒有顯示, 難怪沒人注意...
裸露問題已經改善了很多

jwpk9899 · 2013-10-27 15:44

MFR表示目前就是顛峰...已不再上望中級熱帶風暴了
預估未來將開始減弱

WTIO30 FMEE 270625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2013/10/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 63.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/27 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
24H: 2013/10/28 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
36H: 2013/10/28 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2013/10/29 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
60H: 2013/10/29 18 UTC: 12.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- CI=2.5-