等了那麼多天, 13S終於被命名為Hilwa, 不過它也差不多轉向減弱了 另外, 它好像真的影響了12S的移動路徑, 使12S轉向北移動... |
本帖最後由 mustang 於 2012-2-20 11:59 編輯 雲系開始鬆散,螺旋性慢慢變不好! 轉東南方向! 30kts 1000mb |
TCFA HIGH衛星雲圖:螺旋性超讚! |
N AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 104.7E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN AREA OF CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 112346Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROAD BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY 04 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. DIVERGING FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT AT 05-10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT TO WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE ELONGATED LLCC AND DIURNALLY FLARING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 這麼久終於有點進展 LOW |