簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-2-12 15:39
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N AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 104.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN AREA OF
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN 112346Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROAD BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY 04 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ANCHORED BY AN
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
DIVERGING FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT AT 05-10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT TO WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE ELONGATED LLCC AND
DIURNALLY FLARING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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