被風切切到這樣子...連LLCC也找不到了 老J也把LOW取消了 即使向南移到風切微弱的地區, 如沒有新的對流爆發, 很快便會撤編... 至於被切往西面的對流, 該區風切仍然很強, 新擾動發展的機會亦非常低 |
|
本帖最後由 25044 於 2012-1-28 13:48 編輯 1/28中午12：00最新雲圖： 目前強度15kts，1010mb，雲係較為鬆散，但是根據最新JTWC報文指出 目前90s雖然位於強烈的偏東垂直風切變上而阻礙其發展,但SST介於29~30 攝氏度，且模型數據指出未來兩天可能會有所發展，因此JTWC將它升格為 low！ 最新JTWC報文： THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 51.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 50.3E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SHALLOW CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 271414Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. A 270626Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS FLOWING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS) HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE TO FORMATION WITH VALUES BETWEEN 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. |
組圖打開中，請稍候......