【南印】90S LOW取消馬達加斯加東北中心嚴重裸露

frintezza · 2012-1-27 15:56

本帖最後由 frintezza 於 2012-1-29 12:08 編輯

25044 · 2012-1-28 13:32

本帖最後由 25044 於 2012-1-28 13:48 編輯

1/28中午12：00最新雲圖：

目前強度15kts，1010mb，雲係較為鬆散，但是根據最新JTWC報文指出
目前90s雖然位於強烈的偏東垂直風切變上而阻礙其發展,但SST介於29~30
攝氏度，且模型數據指出未來兩天可能會有所發展，因此JTWC將它升格為
low！
最新JTWC報文：
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S
51.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 50.3E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SHALLOW CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 271414Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. A 270626Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
FLOWING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND INTO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30
KTS) HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA ARE CONDUCIVE TO FORMATION WITH VALUES BETWEEN 29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS, AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.