WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 25.3S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.2S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 114.2E.
09FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
181 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A DECOUPLING VORTEX, WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION ALREADY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SHARK BAY, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF CARNARVON, AUSTRALIA BASED ON RADAR ANALYSIS. SURFACE
WINDS AT CARNARVON SHIFTED FROM NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 1100Z-
1200Z, ACCOMPANIED BY A MINIMUM IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 988.4MB AT
THE SAME TIME, SUPPORTING THE PASSAGE OF THE LLCC OVER THE STATION IN
THAT WINDOW OF TIME. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL LLCC
STRADDLING THE COASTLINE SOUTHWEST OF CALLAGIDDY AT 1200Z, MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF SHARK BAY. A 091106Z WSF-M
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN ELONGATED LLCC JUST WEST OF
CARNARVON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE RADAR ANALYSIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LLCC IN THE WSF-M
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED
ONA PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0-T3.5, A RAW ADT OF T3.0, AIDT OF
46KTS, CIMSS DPRINT ESTIMATE OF 41KTS AND A DMINT ESTIMATE OF 42KTS.
TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, STRADDLING THE COASTLINE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND TO A
POSITION NORTHEAST OF GERALDTON BY TAU 12. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY UNFAVORABLE, AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS INCREASING SHEAR LEADS TO RAPID VORTEX DECOUPLING AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS REDUCE THE WIND SPEEDS SURROUNDING THE LOWER-LEVEL
VORTEX. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
091200Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 53
Issued at 7:52 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 1, impacting the Ningaloo coast. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Ningaloo to Overlander Roadhouse, including Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.
Watch Zone
None.
Cancelled Zone
Exmouth to Giralia.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 23.0 degrees South 113.5 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres south southwest of Exmouth and 210 kilometres north of Carnarvon.
Movement: south southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 1 cyclone, is expected to move southwards along the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts this morning. Mitchell is expected to track to the southeast later today and maintain category 1 strength until it crosses the Gascoyne Coast, expected later on Monday.
Mitchell will weaken overnight Monday and is expected to be below cyclone strength Tuesday morning as it moves over land through the southern Gascoyne.
Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about coastal areas south of Exmouth to north of Cape Cuvier, extending to far northern Gascoyne. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.
Isolated HEAVY to INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region during Monday and continuing overnight into Tuesday.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on the morning's early high tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further south to Denham overnight Monday.
Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Monday 09 February.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 21.6S 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.2S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 25.2S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.3S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.6S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 113.8E. 08FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z,
090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Transmitters serving the Onslow area are requested to USE the Standard
Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued at 2:13 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) has weakened slightly as it approaches the far
west Pilbara coast.
Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Onslow to Carnarvon, including Exmouth, and extending inland
through the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne.
Watch zone: Wooramel Roadhouse to Overlander Roadhouse, including Denham, and
extending to inland parts of the western Gascoyne, including Gascoyne Junction.
Cancelled zone: Mardie.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.2 degrees South 114.7 degrees East,
estimated to be 65 kilometres northwest of Onslow and 100 kilometres northeast
of Exmouth.
Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) has weakened slightly and is now at category 2
intensity. It is expected to maintain its strength as it continues to track
towards the southwest during this afternoon and evening.
Mitchell is forecast to approach the far west Pilbara coast during the
afternoon while remaining over water, with possible landfall close to Exmouth
late this evening or early Monday morning.
Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are possible over coastal areas near Onslow
this afternoon, and are expected to develop over North West Cape (including
Exmouth) this evening. Destructive wind gusts may extend further down the coast
to Coral Bay on Monday morning.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas
from west of Mardie to Exmouth. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are
forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western
Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne later this evening or overnight. During
Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne,
possibly developing over Carnarvon, Denham and Gascoyne Junction during Monday
afternoon and evening.
Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may
occur around the west Pilbara coast around Onslow from later this afternoon,
extending to Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, later this
evening.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including
Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark
this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne
coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.
Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Transmitters serving the Karratha area are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 8:00 pm WST on Saturday 7 February 2026
Headline: Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 3, is moving southwest to the north of Karratha.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.
Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.
Cancelled Zone
East of Whim Creek to Port Hedland, including Port Hedland.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.0 degrees South 116.7 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 245 kilometres northeast of Onslow.
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is intensifying north of Karratha and is at category 3 strength.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast overnight, and then track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday. Late on Sunday it is forecast to move over land near Onslow, before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.
Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 220 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham tonight especially if Mitchell moves closer than forecast, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham tonight, extending west towards Onslow during Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between Whim Creek and Dampier, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica.
Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may develop around the central Pilbara coast west of Wickham overnight and Sunday morning.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 8:54 am WST on Saturday 7 February 2026
Headline: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2 intensity forecast to reach severe category 3 cyclone as it passes just north of Karratha overnight and then along the west Pilbara coast on Sunday.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
De Grey to Ningaloo, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.
Watch Zone
Ningaloo to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 19.0 degrees South 118.4 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 255 kilometres northeast of Karratha.
Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) lies to the north of Port Hedland is intensifying and now forecast to reach category 3 cyclone overnight.
Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast today, and track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.
Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 170 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham overnight, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from as early as this evening, extending to west towards Onslow Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between De Grey and Dampier during Saturday afternoon, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica, from early Sunday morning.
Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
組圖打開中，請稍候......