JTWC06Z降格TD

22S MARIAN 210306 0600 26.3S 96.5E SHEM 25 1000

TPXS10 PGTW 060608

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN)

B. 06/0515Z

C. 26.28S

D. 96.53E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

DT已降到1.5,FT降至2.0.JTWC預測還能撐36小時，但看起來可能會比較難

TPXS10 PGTW 050303

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN)

B. 05/0230Z

C. 23.34S

D. 94.80E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 78NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   04/2121Z  22.70S  94.83E  SSMS
   04/2346Z  22.95S  94.57E  SSMS


   RHOADES

顯然22S並未如預報暫時停止減弱的步伐
BoM00Z降澳式C1

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0137 UTC 04/03/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 20.6S
Longitude: 93.2E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [143 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:W1.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  04/0600: 21.3S  93.7E:     040 [075]:  040  [075]:  983
+12:  04/1200: 22.0S  94.2E:     050 [090]:  040  [075]:  982
+18:  04/1800: 22.6S  94.6E:     055 [100]:  040  [075]:  984
+24:  05/0000: 23.4S  95.0E:     060 [105]:  040  [075]:  984
+36:  05/1200: 24.7S  95.6E:     070 [125]:  040  [075]:  986
+48:  06/0000: 26.0S  96.0E:     085 [160]:  035  [065]:  989
+60:  06/1200: 26.8S  96.4E:     125 [230]:  035  [065]:  991
+72:  07/0000: 27.5S  96.5E:     160 [295]:  030  [055]:  998
+96:  08/0000: 28.8S  95.0E:     245 [450]:  030  [055]: 1004
+120: 09/0000: 30.2S  95.0E:     295 [545]:  030  [055]: 1007

BoM在報文中認為強度將持續暫時的固定在50節大約一天，随後回到減弱的大趨勢並消亡

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1804 UTC 03/03/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.7S
Longitude: 92.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [119 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  04/0000: 20.2S  93.6E:     045 [080]:  050  [095]:  984
+12:  04/0600: 20.7S  94.0E:     050 [090]:  050  [095]:  984
+18:  04/1200: 21.4S  94.5E:     050 [095]:  050  [095]:  984
+24:  04/1800: 22.1S  94.9E:     055 [100]:  045  [085]:  986
+36:  05/0600: 23.5S  95.6E:     060 [110]:  040  [075]:  989
+48:  05/1800: 24.9S  96.1E:     080 [150]:  035  [065]:  993
+60:  06/0600: 26.2S  96.5E:     105 [195]:  035  [065]:  992
+72:  06/1800: 26.9S  96.7E:     145 [270]:  035  [065]:  991
+96:  07/1800: 28.6S  96.4E:     235 [435]:  030  [055]:  995
+120: 08/1800: 30.8S  95.9E:     310 [570]:  030  [055]:  993