JMA判定00Z已消散

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2021-2-22 11:02
CWB00Z一度定強：10m/sXDD(現已修改為15m/s),不知道是否是CWB史上最低定強

還有最後的那句預測12小時減弱 ...

CWB06Z將強度下降至12m/s，預測又從10m/s改成12m/s

熱帶性低氣壓TD01
(原杜鵑颱風)
現況
2021年02月22日14時

中心位置在北緯 13.0 度，東經 123.5 度
過去移動方向 西北
過去移動時速 58公里
中心氣壓 1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 20 公里
預測 02月23日02時
中心位置在北緯 13.9 度，東經 121.5 度
中心氣壓1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里

菲律賓當地06Z將其降格為低壓區並發佈最終報，除下所有熱帶氣旋警告

LPA "Auring"

Tropical Cyclone: ALERT
Issued at 02:00 pm, 22 February 2021
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at )


"AURING" WEAKENS INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF ALBAY.

“AURING” weakened into a Low Pressure Area at 11:00 AM today prior to crossing the Rapu-Rapu Islands, Albay.
It is forecast to move northwestward to westward and may traverse Bicol Region, southern Quezon, Marinduque, and northern Mindoro in the next 24 hours. There is an increasing likelihood of the disturbance dissipating while traversing Southern Luzon.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Heavy Rainfall:
Today: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, Quezon, Marinduque, and Romblon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora, Rizal, Laguna, Northern Samar, and the rest of MIMAROPA.
Tomorrow: Moderate to heavy rains over Camarines Norte, Quezon, and Aurora. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, the rest of CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Camarines Sur, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Isabela, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Batanes.
Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are still likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that received significant rainfall over the past couple of days. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong Winds:
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 is now lifted. However, the Northeast Monsoon will continue to bring strong breeze conditions over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Aurora, and Quezon.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.1 m) will be experienced over seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Location of Eye/center
At 1:00 PM today, the center of the Low Pressure Area (LPA)(formerly "AURING") was estimated based on all available data Over the coastal waters of Rapu-Rapu, Albay. (13.3 °N, 124.0 °E )
Movement
Moving
Strength
Maximum sustained winds of km/h near the center and gustiness of up to km/h
Forecast Position
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
With this development and unless re-intensification occurs, this is the final weather bulletin for this weather disturbance and the next update will be included in the 4PM Public Weather Forecast and 11PM Weather Advisory.

JTWC0230Z判定登陸菲律賓

TPPN10 PGTW 220252
A. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN)
B. 22/0230Z
C. 11.70N
D. 125.40E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HEINS

CWB00Z一度定強：10m/sXDD(現已修改為15m/s),不知道是否是CWB史上最低定強

還有最後的那句預測12小時減弱為低氣壓也是第一次見

熱帶性低氣壓TD01
(原杜鵑颱風)
現況
2021年02月22日08時
中心位置在北緯11.0 度，東經126.0 度
過去移動方向西北
過去移動時速16公里
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒10 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒18 公尺

預測
預測12 小時平均移向移速為
西北西時速30 公里
預測02月22日20時
中心位置在北緯11.9 度，東經122.8 度
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒10 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒18 公尺
70%機率半徑110 公里
預測12 小時減弱為低氣壓

JTWC03Z發布Final Warning

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 020   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 125.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 125.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 11.6N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 12.2N 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 125.2E.
22FEB21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
373 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
SITUATED WITHIN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 25
KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE AND NEARBY SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS. TD 01W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND STEADILY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE DECREASES AND THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS OCCASIONALLY
WITH LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE DISSIPATING
SYSTEM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 10
FEET.//
NNNN

僅餘CI2.0,JMA00Z降TD

2021-02-22 00:00 UTC

- Dujuan (2101) -
Position: 10.95N 126.00E
CI: 2.0 | DT: 1.5
MET: 1.5 | PT: 1.5
FT: 1.5

熱帯低気圧
令和03年02月22日09時40分 発表

<22日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 11度00分(11.0度)
東経 126度00分(126.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa