ABIO10 PGTW 211430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/211430Z-211800ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.1N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
211216Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DISORGANIZED AREA
OF FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC. 93B IS CURRENTLY IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93B WILL
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD; HOWEVER, MODELS DISAGREE ON THE LEVEL OF
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED FOR 93B. NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOW 93B REACHING
WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA .1B.(1) AS A LOW.//
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