JMA12Z降格低氣壓

LOW 1010 HPA AT 37N 125E ENE 10 KT

JTWC已於10/06Z取消評級。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 34.8N 123.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

明顯是30節的熱帶低壓。

JTWC08/0600Z評級Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY
267 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 080454Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC WITH WEAK BANDING
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 080115Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK POLEWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

並於08/00Z時開始認定此系統為副熱帶低壓

WP, 96, 2019090712,   , BEST,   0, 261N, 1244E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  125,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
WP, 96, 2019090718,   , BEST,   0, 270N, 1250E,  20, 1003, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1005,  110,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 96, 2019090800,   , BEST,   0, 279N, 1252E,  25, 1000, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1005,  110,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 96, 2019090806,   , BEST,   0, 291N, 1251E,  30,  996, SD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  160,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,

此外,JMA亦於06Z發布[W]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 29.5N 124.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

23N 125E附近出現一個類風眼XD

這擾動應該發展有限，不是每一個都能成為納莉。