霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 W
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 07 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 00 日 00 時
96W.INVEST.15kts-1003mb-24.5N-124E

t02436

JMA升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 25N 124E NORTH SLOWLY.

ericlin6925

這擾動應該發展有限，不是每一個都能成為納莉。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 平級Low。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
25.4N 123.5E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 070136Z
MHS 89GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. 96W
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (<15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT THIS IS OFFSET BY A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE
AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

23N 125E附近出現一個類風眼XD

老農民版夜神月

JTWC08/0600Z評級Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY
267 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 080454Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC WITH WEAK BANDING
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 080115Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK POLEWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

並於08/00Z時開始認定此系統為副熱帶低壓

WP, 96, 2019090712,   , BEST,   0, 261N, 1244E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  125,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
WP, 96, 2019090718,   , BEST,   0, 270N, 1250E,  20, 1003, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1005,  110,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 96, 2019090800,   , BEST,   0, 279N, 1252E,  25, 1000, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1005,  110,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 96, 2019090806,   , BEST,   0, 291N, 1251E,  30,  996, SD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  160,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,

此外,JMA亦於06Z發布[W]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 29.5N 124.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Meow

明顯是30節的熱帶低壓。

jrchang5

JTWC已於10/06Z取消評級。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 34.8N 123.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.