MFR判定Kenanga於12230000Z已填塞為低壓，最大風速降為30kts。此為MFR最後一報。

WTIO31 FMEE 230028
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/4/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 4 (EX-KENANGA)
2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 77.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 330 SO: 210 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PEU PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
24H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
36H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
48H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, SE DISSIPANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
L'AIR SEC AMENE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SUD-OUEST DANS LES
COUCHES MOYENNES DE L'ATMOSPHERE A EU RAISON DE KENANGA. AUCUNE
ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE NE S'EST DEVELOPPEE DURANT LA NUIT A PROXIMITE DU
CENTRE. SEULS QUELQUES FOYERS TRES ISOLES SONT A SIGNALER LOIN DU
CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE EN CONSEQUENCE
A 30 KT. DU COUP DE VENT EST PROBABLEMENT ENCORE PRESENT LOCALEMENT
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.
EX-KENANGA SE DEPLACE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-
OUEST D'UNE FAIBLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE QUI
S'EFFACE A LA FAVEUR D'UN VASTE TALWEG QUI S'INSTALLE DURABLEMENT AU
SUD DES MASCAREIGNES. EX-KELANGA DEVRAIT VENIR S'Y DISSIPER AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 48H.
SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION, CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE
LA REUNION SUR CE SYSTEME. CELUI-CI CONTINUERA D'ETRE SUIVI VIA LES
BULLETINS QUOTIDIENS AWIO21 FMEE AINSI QUE VIA LES BULLETINS MARINE DE
LA ZONE METAREA VIII(S) FQIO26 FIMP.

TC06S目前正沿著在西南方建立的副熱帶高壓脊的北緣偏西移動，預計48小時後，隨著中緯度槽線接近，迫使高壓東退，其行進方向將再轉為西南。又TC06S與位於其西方的TC07S雖然逐漸拉近，但目前尚未有彼此間相互影響的跡象。

12190000Z近中心最大風速達115kts（JTWC），德法分析T指數為6.5。

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 018-12-18_1942Z.jpg

12181200Z近中心最大風速提升至90kts。由於位於06S西側的另一擾動92S正在發展，且二者距離逐漸拉近，未來是否相互影響而呈現緩慢不規則的移動路徑，將是未來數日觀察的重點。

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 83.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC
AND ANNULAR AS IT DEVELOPED A DEFINED 40-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL
ALSO RECEDE EASTWARD AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY, A DEVELOPING CYCLONE
(92S) WILL BE WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC 06S FOR POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION THAT MAY INTRODUCE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION. IN THE NEAR
TERM, TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND
INCREASING VWS AND, BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 50
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SPREADING AFTER TAU 48 TO A SPAN OF OVER 180 NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW
OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP TO
TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z.//
NNNN