WTIO21 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.1N 88.7E TO 11.7N 82.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 88.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 511
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 122203Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15-20
KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY. MODELS
INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140300Z.//
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