補充一下
CPHC昨天21Z發出最後一報，現已轉化。

WTPA44 PHFO 082123
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number  47...RESENT
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP162018
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 08 2018

Norman is quickly losing the characteristics of a tropical cyclone
as strong vertical wind shear is taking its toll. The low-level
circulation center (LLCC) has been exposed for the better part of a
day now, with sporadic deep convection in the northern semicircle
remaining well removed from the center. Visible satellite imagery
shows the LLCC becoming increasingly elongated, now marked by a 90
nm X 30 nm wide clear area. Intensity estimates support lowering the
initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory as Norman continues to
spin down.

The track forecast takes Norman generally toward the north through
day 3 before briefly turning it northwestward before dissipation on
day 5, in line with GFEX. It appears that Norman will still produce
at least gale force winds for the next couple of days as it
interacts with a developing cold-core low to its northwest, with
GFS indicating winds in excess of 50 kt in 24-36 hours. While this
seems a little extreme, the official intensity forecast indicates
little change in intensity through day 2, with gradual weakening
thereafter.

This will be the last advisory issued by CPHC on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 26.9N 154.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  09/0600Z 28.4N 154.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  09/1800Z 30.2N 154.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  10/0600Z 32.0N 154.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  10/1800Z 33.5N 154.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  11/1800Z 35.0N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  12/1800Z 35.5N 157.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

頑強的生命力，15Z第三度站上MH！

WTPA44 PHFO 051500
TCDCP4

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP162018
500 AM HST Wed Sep 05 2018

Norman appears to have rapidly intensified overnight. Although
the eye has become slightly less distinct during the past couple of
hours, the satellite fix agencies (SAB, JTWC, and PHFO) were in
unanimous agreement that the subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimate was 5.5/102 kt. In addition, the most recent UW-CIMSS
ADT estimate was 5.8/110 kt. Based on these estimates, we have
increased the initial intensity to 100 kt for this advisory.

Norman has been moving just south of due west, or 265 deg, at 10 kt.
It is being steered by a deep subtropical ridge located to the north
and northeast. The western edge of this ridge is forecast to erode
later today as an upper-level trough digs down toward the region
north of the Hawaiian Islands during the next couple of days. As a
result, the forecast guidance is showing an increasing spread in the
track forecasts starting in 48 hours. This is likely due to the way
the different models forecast the weakening of the western flank of
the ridge due to the upper-level trough. This weakening of the
ridge is expected to cause Norman to slow its forward motion and
gradually turn toward the west-northwest starting later today. This
will likely be followed by a turn toward the northwest starting
later tonight or early Thursday, and continuing into this weekend.
The latest forecast track has been shifted to the left of the
previous forecast, and remains close to the middle of the guidance
envelope through the next 2 days. Even though the guidance spread
increases during days 3 through 5, all of the models support the
general northwestward motion persisting. The latest official
forecast is also very close to the FSSE, TVCE, HCCA and GFEX
consensus model guidance.

Norman is expected to remain a hurricane for the next couple of
days. The latest CIRA ocean heat content (OHC) analysis appears to
support it remaining near major hurricane intensity today. Vertical
wind shear has gradually increased to near 15 kt based on the
latest UW-CIMSS estimate, which may be contributing to some of the
degradation of the eye this morning. By tonight, most of the
guidance is in good agreement that Norman will start to weaken under
the effects of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, cooler
SSTs, and drier environmental conditions. This weakening will likely
persist through day 5, when Norman is forecast to become a remnant
low. The intensity forecast follows similar trends of the prior
advisory, and favors the latest ICON guidance.

The NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft is scheduled to conduct another
mission to sample the environment around Norman later today. The
valuable data collected during this mission will be used to improve
the initialization of the various hurricane forecast models that we
use to predict the motion and intensity of Norman later today and
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 19.5N 147.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 19.8N 148.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 20.4N 150.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 21.4N 151.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 22.6N 152.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 24.9N 154.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 27.0N 156.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 28.6N 158.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Houston

16E NORMAN 180905 1200 19.5N 147.2W EPAC 100 962
16E NORMAN 180905 0600 19.6N 146.1W EPAC 80 978
16E NORMAN 180905 0000 19.8N 145.1W EPAC 70 984
16E NORMAN 180904 1800 19.8N 143.9W EPAC 70 984
16E NORMAN 180904 1200 19.8N 142.6W EPAC 75 982
16E NORMAN 180904 0600 19.8N 141.0W EPAC 75 982
16E NORMAN 180904 0000 19.7N 139.4W EPAC 85 975
16E NORMAN 180903 1800 19.4N 137.6W EPAC 90 971
16E NORMAN 180903 1200 19.1N 135.7W EPAC 100 964
16E NORMAN 180903 0600 18.8N 133.7W EPAC 110 955
16E NORMAN 180903 0000 18.4N 131.8W EPAC 115 950
16E NORMAN 180902 1800 17.9N 130.0W EPAC 115 948
16E NORMAN 180902 1200 17.4N 128.3W EPAC 115 948
16E NORMAN 180902 0600 16.9N 126.7W EPAC 90 970
16E NORMAN 180902 0000 16.5N 125.5W EPAC 85 973
16E NORMAN 180901 1800 16.2N 124.5W EPAC 90 970
16E NORMAN 180901 1200 16.2N 123.3W EPAC 90 970
16E NORMAN 180901 0600 16.3N 122.5W EPAC 95 966
16E NORMAN 180901 0000 16.4N 121.8W EPAC 105 958
16E NORMAN 180831 1800 16.6N 121.1W EPAC 110 954
16E NORMAN 180831 1200 16.8N 120.4W EPAC 115 950
16E NORMAN 180831 0600 17.1N 119.9W EPAC 125 942
16E NORMAN 180831 0000 17.4N 119.2W EPAC 130 937
16E NORMAN 180830 1800 17.6N 118.4W EPAC 130 937
16E NORMAN 180830 1200 17.7N 117.6W EPAC 125 942
16E NORMAN 180830 0600 17.8N 117.0W EPAC 95 968
16E NORMAN 180830 0000 17.8N 116.3W EPAC 70 986
16E NORMAN 180829 1800 17.7N 115.7W EPAC 65 987
16E NORMAN 180829 1200 17.6N 115.1W EPAC 55 994
16E NORMAN 180829 0600 17.4N 114.2W EPAC 50 999
16E NORMAN 180829 0000 17.4N 113.4W EPAC 45 1000

進入中太，09Z轉交CPHC發報，將在西經150度附近北轉，不會影響夏威夷。

WTPA44 PHFO 040856
TCDCP4

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP162018
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 03 2018

Norman continues to weaken this evening. The final visible
satellite images of the day showed a cloud-filled eye, and cloud
tops have warmed further during the past several hours. Subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates came in at 4.5/77 kt from PHFO,
and 4.0/65 kt from SAB/JTWC, while the latest CIMSS ADT estimate is
4.2/70 kt. A blend of these estimates supports lowering the initial
intensity to 75 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane has turned slightly to an almost due west track this
evening, and it appears that the anticipated decrease in forward
speed has begun. The initial motion estimate is 275/15 kt, which is
a few knots slower than the previous advisory. Westward motion with
a further decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through
the next 36 hours as Norman nears the southwestern periphery of a
strong subtropical ridge centered to the northeast. Thereafter, the
cyclone will gradually turn to the west-northwest then to the
northwest as it moves around the end of the ridge and is
increasingly steered by a large deep-layered trough over the North
Pacific. Most of the reliable guidance has come into better
agreement with the location and timing of this turn. The consensus
guidance HCCA, TVCE and FSSE are tightly packed and in good
agreement with the previous official forecast through 48 hours, then
shift slightly to the right thereafter. The new official forecast is
very similar to the previous forecast, and generally lies very close
to the consensus aids in the middle of the guidance envelope.

The CIMSS initial vertical wind shear estimate was 10 kt, and SHIPS
guidance shows light shear continuing for another 48 hours as
Norman continues tracking around the subtropical ridge. The main
issue causing weakening for the hurricane at present appears to be
marginal sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. CIRA
analysis shows that Norman should move into an area of slightly more
favorable OHC after about 12 more hours, and the guidance shows
intensity flattening out from 12 through 48 hours. Norman may
actually re-intensity a bit during that time period, but opted to
keep the intensity forecast level at 70 kt for this advisory.
Thereafter, a rapid increase in wind shear, a drier surrounding
airmass, and progressively cooler sea surface temperatures should
cause steady weakening. The new intensity forecast is similar to
the previous, and in good agreement with the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 19.9N 141.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  04/1800Z 20.0N 143.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  05/0600Z 20.0N 145.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  05/1800Z 20.3N 147.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  06/0600Z 20.9N 149.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  07/0600Z 23.3N 151.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  08/0600Z 26.0N 153.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 29.0N 155.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jacobson

15Z重回C4，迎來二次巔峰。

561
WTPZ41 KNHC 021438
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Norman has made a remarkable and surprising come back today.
Satellite images reveal a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection, and Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB reached
T6.0 around 1200 UTC.  These numbers have leveled off since then. On
this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt,
making Norman again a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Scale.  The hurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs,
and although some of the intensity models are more aggressive in
forecasting strengthening, the NHC forecast prefers the consensus
IVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 to 24 hours.

Norman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a
strong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Norman, and this
flow pattern will continue to steer the hurricane between the
west and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 to 3 days.
By then, the ridge is forecast to be weaker and a turn toward the
northwest is expected by the end of the forecast period. Track
guidance is in very good agreement, and unanimously, all models
forecast the gradual turn to the northwest beyond 4 days. The NHC
track forecast is in the middle of the envelope and is not much
different from the earlier one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.6N 129.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 22.0N 150.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 24.0N 153.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

15Z直接爆發到130節！上望140節
是自2015年Patricia增強最快，也是東太今年風季至今最強。

951
WTPZ41 KNHC 301447
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Norman has rapidly strengthened during the past 12 to 24 hours,
with the development of a well-defined 20-nmi-wide eye and a thick
ring of cold cloud tops of -70 to -85C.  Dvorak constraints have
limited the amount of increase in the subjective and objective final
T-numbers, but the most recent raw data T-numbers are between T6.5
and T7.2, which yields an initial intensity estimate of 130 kt.
Norman's intensity has increased an estimated 70 kt from 1200 UTC
yesterday morning to 1200 UTC this morning- the fastest in the
basin since Patricia in 2015.  Norman has become the 5th category 4
hurricane in the eastern Pacific in 2018 and is also the strongest
hurricane in the basin so far this season.

The hurricane remains in a low-shear environment and will continue
to move over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius for another
24 hours.  These conditions are expected to allow for additional
strengthening and Norman is forecast to become a category 5
hurricane later today.  Eyewall replacement cycles are likely after
that time, which are difficult to predict, and should cause some
fluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days. Later in
the period, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and a
slight increase in shear are forecast to cause gradual weakening.
However, Norman is predicted to remain a hurricane throughout the
5-day forecast period.

Norman is moving westward or 270/7 kt. A strong subtropical ridge
that extends from the Baja California peninsula west-southwestward
into the eastern Pacific is expected to turn Norman
west-southwestward later today or tonight, with this motion
continuing over the next couple of days.  The global models shift
the orientation of the ridge in a few days which should cause
Norman to turn west-northwestward by early next week.  The
dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 17.8N 118.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
12H  31/0000Z 17.7N 119.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
24H  31/1200Z 17.2N 120.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
48H  01/1200Z 16.1N 124.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
72H  02/1200Z 16.7N 128.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  03/1200Z 18.5N 133.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 20.2N 138.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

強度已達75節，持續增強，預測兩天以內會達顛峰

848
WTPZ41 KNHC 300236
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Norman is steadily strengthening.  Recent microwave images indicate
that the hurricane now has a well-defined inner core with a banded
eye feature evident in that data.  The eye is not yet apparent in
geostationary images, but the convective pattern is improving in
organization and the cloud tops continue to become colder.  A blend
of the satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC supported an
initial intensity of 70 kt, and since the system continues to
become better organized, the initial wind speed for this advisory is
increased to 75 kt.  Now that Norman has an inner core, rapid
intensification is expected during the next 24 hours or so while the
hurricane remains in near ideal environmental conditions.  The SHIPS
rapid intensification indices are very high, and the NHC intensity
forecast remains near the upper end of the model guidance in the
short term.  Beyond a couple of days, an increase in shear
and slightly cooler waters should promote a gradual weakening trend.

Satellite images suggest that the forward speed of Norman has
slowed to 280/7 kt.  All of the models show a mid-level ridge
amplifying to the north of the tropical cyclone during the next few
days, and this should cause the hurricane to move westward or
west-southwestward during that time.  Thereafter, a turn back to the
west and then west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is
predicted as Norman moves closer to the western periphery of the
ridge.  The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and
the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  03/0000Z 16.9N 130.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

命名"16E Norman"，巔峰上望110kt

WTPZ41 KNHC 290236
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

The tropical cyclone has become significantly better organized over
the past several hours.  A band of very cold-topped convection now
spirals well over halfway around the circulation.  Dvorak T-numbers
from both TAFB and SAB are up to 3.0, which corresponds to a
current intensity of 45 kt.  On this basis the system is being
upgraded to a tropical storm, making Norman the fourteenth named
tropical cyclone of this busy eastern North Pacific hurricane
season.  Since Norman will continue to move over warm waters and
through an environment of low vertical shear and moist mid-level
air, continued strengthening is likely.  In fact, the various Rapid
Intensification (RI) Indices show high probabilities of RI.
Therefore the official forecast shows intensity changes of 30 and 35
kt per day from 0-24 hours and 24-48 hours respectively.  This is
also close to the simple intensity consensus but below the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and the latest HWRF model run.

The most recent geostationary and microwave satellite center fixes
indicate that Norman is located a little south and southwest of the
previous track, but the initial motion estimate remains about the
same as before, 290/9 kt.  The cyclone is moving along the southern
periphery of a large mid-level ridge which is expanding westward.
This should cause the system to turn toward the west very soon.
Later in the period, the ridge builds a little to the southwest and
this will likely cause Norman to turn toward the west-southwest.
The official track forecast is a little south of the previous one,
but close to the latest simple and corrected model consensus
predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 17.5N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  29/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  30/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  30/1200Z 18.3N 118.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  31/0000Z 18.1N 120.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  01/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  02/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W   90 KT 105 MPH