(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 134.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240115 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A
LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
A 240114Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ASYMMETRIC
WINDS, SHOWING LOWER (5-10 KNOTS) TO THE WEST AND HIGHER (15-20
KNOTS) TO THE EAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION AND GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO IF IT WILL INTENSIFY, HAVE INTERACTION WITH 24W, OR CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.3N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231207Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY
SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND MOST SHOW SOME DEGREE OF
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED AS TO
THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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