(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.9S 179.3W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A 071855Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLC WITH ITS CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED AND A
POCKET OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 070906Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD08F CENTRE {[1000HPA}] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
AND 178.0E AT 030600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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