TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 282317 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 991HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 161.5E AT
282100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 3
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVING DT=3.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING 3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290900 UTC 20.7S 162.2E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 292100 UTC 22.9S 162.8E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300900 UTC 25.5S 163.2E MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 302100 UTC 28.5S 163.4E MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 290200 UTC.
GALE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 290109 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FEHI CENTRE 986HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5
SOUTH 162.3 EAST AT 290000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 19.5S 162.3E AT 290000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 260 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.2S 163.2E AT 291200 UTC
AND NEAR 23.7S 163.9E AT 300000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
** WTPS11 NFFN 280000 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 280148 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 160.2E
AT 280000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD06F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF LLCC. ORGANISATION
HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BY THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.4 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5. PT AND MT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 17.5S 161.2E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 18.7S 162.0E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 20.5S 162.9E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 22.9S 163.5E MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 280800 UTC.
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