當地4月6日斐濟西方強烈熱帶氣旋Zena，由Terra擷取。


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Zena_2016-04-05_2255Z.jpg

繼Winston重創斐濟後，先前的15F又對斐濟造成災情。大概是天可憐見，這次Zena的影響並不大，主要雲系都從南側通過，一方面路徑偏南，另外風切也稍把對流向南切離，斐濟總算逃過一劫。







水能載舟，亦能覆舟；成也蕭何，敗也蕭何。現在Zena已經控制不了過於熱情的槽線，正受強風切影響走向不歸路。






Zena的發展完全看槽線和風切的臉色。整個暴起暴落的戲劇性發展，有點像南半球版的小型無花果

WTPS31 PGTW 060300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ZENA) WARNING NR 003//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ZENA) WARNING NR 003       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY    ---   WARNING POSITION:   060000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 172.8E     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 26 KTS     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 172.8E    ---   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:   061200Z --- 19.3S 177.4E   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 23 KTS    ---   24 HRS, VALID AT:   070000Z --- 20.4S 177.8W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS    ---   36 HRS, VALID AT:   071200Z --- 21.0S 173.3W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 20 KTS    ---   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:   48 HRS, VALID AT:   080000Z --- 21.2S 169.1W   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY   SUBTROPICAL       ---REMARKS:060300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 173.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (ZENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THEPAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 5 NM WIDE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE WITH PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 052214Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK VALUES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC ZENA IS TRACKING WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD WITHIN THIS ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS VWS BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 36 AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48, AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TC ZENA, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//NNNN

4/6 00Z老J升C2 90KT


接上槽前，幅散猛爆，是這波急速增強主因


早上一度開眼


稍早則又填塞



逐漸移入風切強勁區域，現在應該已經是巔峰

標題說穩定增強不太對吧，明明是爆發增強，從命名到強烈熱帶氣旋不到1天。

1. HURRICANE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 060056 UTC.
   
2. 
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE ZENA CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 SOUTH 172.4
   
4. EAST AT 060000 UTC.POSITION FAIR.
   
5. REPEAT POSITION 17.5S 172.4E AT 060000 UTC.
   
6. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS.
   
7. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
   
8. 
   
9. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
   
10.              OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,              
    
11.              OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
    
12. 
    
13. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.0S 176.8E AT 061200 UTC            
    
14.               AND NEAR 19.8S 178.7W AT 070000 UTC.
    
15. 
    
16. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
    
17. EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
    
18. VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
    
19. 
    
20. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 013.

複製代碼

風切控制的相當好、OHC尚可且無乾空氣、又受惠於極向流出，Zena穩定增強，底層建立、現在連高層也開始捲眼了

2016APR05 142000  3.4  992.5  53.0  3.4 3.7 3.7  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  -64.87 -76.27  UNIFRM   N/A  -55.6  -16.10 -168.93  FCST    HIM-8 37.1

不過所剩的發展時間並不多了

命名Zena。

1. STORM WARNING 012  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 051319 UTC.
   
2. 
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE ZENA CENTRE 992HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4
   
4. SOUTH 167.9 EAST AT 051200 UTC.
   
5. POSITION FAIR.
   
6. REPEAT POSITION 15.4S 167.9E at 051200 UTC.
   
7. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
   
8. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
   
9. 50 KNOTS BY 060000 UTC.
   
10. 
    
11. EXPECT WINDS 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
    
12. 
    
13. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.9S 171.5E AT 060000 UTC
    
14.               AND NEAR 18.3S 175.7E AT 061200 UTC.
    
15. 
    
16. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
    
17. REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
    
18. NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
    
19. AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
    
20. 
    
21. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

複製代碼