消散

又擦出陸地  40KTS
即將三次登陸

ZCZC 414
WTIO24 FMEE 170016
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/02/2011
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 29/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY   17/02/2011 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON:         TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (BINGIZA) 993 HPA
POSITION:           WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 43.7E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:           SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 20 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 330 NM
IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT .
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 20 NM FROM   THE
CENTER   EXTENDING UP TO 100NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SECTOR.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS BY GRADIENT EFFECT NEAR
THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2011/02/17 AT 12 UTC:
21.2S / 43.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND.
24H, VALID 2011/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
22.0S / 44.1E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AND REORGANIZED WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND
PROBABLY
REACHED THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE NOW. IT SHOULD STILL DEEPEN
BEFORE
LANDFALL BETWEEN BELO AND MOROMBE TODAY AROUND 12TU.=
NNNN

系統通過馬達加斯加島後繼續偏南移動，同時環流正遭受到陸地的破壞。


原先預測進入莫三比克海峽後再登一級旋風，由於緊貼著陸地的關係，未來要在重整增強的機會不高。

再次登陸

剩下TD  出海了

還好  登陸位置和未來行走方向來看  有機會出海(莫三比克海峽)再增強
看圖就知了：
...
... 發表於 2011-2-14 22:29

哇
上面預測圖
預測出海後還有增強回C1的機會呢(實心的那顆)
真是頑強 且光是現在看雲圖還有一個颱風眼輪廓在那


(廢言：開學考後終於解脫了XD)