老農民版夜神月

翻了一下FWC-N網站,發現在升格前30分鐘左右居然發了TCFAXDD

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (99L)//
WTNT21 KNGU 261400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 79.0W TO 18.3N 81.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 79.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM LAST NIGHT
INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRIDAY NIGHT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 271400Z.//
BT

老農民版夜神月

NHC看好登陸美國前強度,初報上望95KT

INIT  26/1500Z 16.9N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  27/0000Z 18.2N  80.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  27/1200Z 20.3N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  28/0000Z 22.5N  83.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
48H  28/1200Z 24.4N  86.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
60H  29/0000Z 26.1N  88.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  29/1200Z 27.7N  90.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  30/1200Z 30.5N  92.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/1200Z 33.7N  91.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格09L

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine, located over the west-central Caribbean Sea, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,70%

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better
organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a
couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. While recent satellite wind
data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined
circulation, environmental conditions remain conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today, near
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in
portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba.  In addition, this system could bring
dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to
portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of
Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However,
uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form.
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this
system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system later today, if necessary.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至Medium,50%/80%

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or
over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional
development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding
will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition,
this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind,
and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas,
and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next
week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.