t02436

JTWC 01Z提升評級至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.2N 146.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 576
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
REVEALED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR IS CURRENTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A
WEAK LLCC TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER, THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE, DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.   
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JMA預測24小時內升格TD




目前中心裸了...

alu

它應該不會發展的很好很強才對，它跟1527 茉莉相差約一個多禮拜，而且現在是冬季海溫回升沒有那麼快這是它跟1527 茉莉最大不一樣和最吃虧的地方

t02436

結果JMA 06Z直接就升熱帶低壓了...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 04N 145E WNW SLOWLY.