0908morakot

  熱帶風暴  
編號：02 C
名稱：Iune


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 07 月 09 日 18 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 07 月 12 日 06 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 07 月 18 日 16 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速： 35   kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：1003 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
92C.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.11.8N.151.5W


CPHC:20%

2. Scattered thunderstorms persist around a weak surface low located about 600 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Anticipating unfavorable environmental conditions for significant development of this system during the next two days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

以上資料來自：CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

美國海軍於清晨發布TCFA
CPHC中午提升展望至70%後立即升格為02C






初報暫時上望C1

** WTPA43 PHFO 100905 ***
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022015
1100 PM HST THU JUL 09 2015

PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FAR
SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS PROMPTED THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS SUPPORTED BY
A 2.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM HFO...WHILE SAB AND JTWC GAVE
1.5.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION CONTAIN A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MIXED SIGNALS FROM
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE SHIPS INTENSIFIES THE DEPRESSION TO A
HURRICANE BY DAY 5...THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY DAY 3. THE REMNANT LOW TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THESE
MODELS...THEREBY SKEWING THE NORMALLY RELIABLE TRACK CONSENSUS
MODELS THAT RELY HEAVILY ON THESE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THE
DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY DAY 5. THEREFORE...A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN NOT FORECAST...WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING
NORTHWEST EARLY ON...AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LATER FORECAST
PERIODS...STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 10.9N 154.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 11.4N 155.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 12.0N 156.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  11/1800Z 13.0N 158.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  12/0600Z 13.5N 159.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  13/0600Z 13.1N 162.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  14/0600Z 13.0N 166.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 13.0N 169.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

Meow

按照CPHC如此預測，JMA的1512、1513基本就是01C、02C，也就是未來的Halola、Iune。

（Iune的I是大寫的i）

Meow

已命名Iune，上望55節。

BlankCat

大陸官方譯名「尤內」
(個人感覺不太好聽的樣子...)
如果真的又要換日的話
台灣又要想名字了

t02436

對流急遽衰退
CPHC已不再看好發展
預估下一報降TD
五天後預估到西經179度，但強度只有25節
能否以Iune的名字跨洋還是充滿變數.....

WTPA43 PHFO 121443
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM IUNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022015
500 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015

ALTHOUGH NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OVERALL
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IUNE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING...
DESPITE WHAT IS ANALYZED AS VERY LIGHT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE
LLCC IS NEARLY COMPLETELY EXPOSED...AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION...WITH BI-SPECTRAL INFRARED IMAGERY /AKA
FOG CHANNEL/ HELPING TO DISCERN LOW CLOUD LINES SPIRALING AROUND THE
CENTER. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 25 TO 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT WHAT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT GENEROUS 35 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS MORNING...ESTIMATED
TO BE 260/08 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST AND PHILOSOPHY HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
FEATURES A STRONG HIGH FAR TO THE NORTH...BUT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ELA LOCATED BETWEEN IUNE AND THE HIGH IS LEADING TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE
ELA REMNANT WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT
NORTH OF IUNE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALOFT...THE FORECAST
ANTICIPATES A LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTHWARD...WHILE A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD.
THESE COMBINED EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION THAT PERSISTS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS...AND HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT
NORTHWARD AT THE LATER PERIODS.

WHILE SSTS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK TO
SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE...IUNE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...
MAINLY DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ALLOWING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SMALL AND FRAGILE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT CAMPS...WITH SHIPS AND LGEM
FORECASTING SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF
FORECAST STEADY WEAKENING...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING BY DAY 4. THE
IVCN CONSENSUS THEREFORE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS...AND NOW MORE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WEAKER GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH
DEGRADE THE SYSTEM TO AN OPEN WAVE BY DAY 4 OR 5. WHILE THE UPDATED
FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE SYSTEM REMAINING A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH DAY 5...THIS MAY BE GENEROUS...AND THE SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY
DEGRADE TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE TAU 120.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.1N 160.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 14.9N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 14.4N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 13.9N 165.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 13.6N 167.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  15/1200Z 13.5N 172.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
96H  16/1200Z 13.5N 175.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 13.5N 179.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

asus5635

降格為T.D了




預測24小時後消散

開梅

說個題外話，IUNE的念法我會翻成幽妮，這名字和1974年那有名的藤原效應的例子科斯坦和奧尼颶風相似，奧尼原名叫IONE