KINGRIC

  一級颶風  
編號：03 E
名稱：Carlos


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 06 月 08 日 15 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 06 月 11 日 23 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 06 月 19 日 12 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥 曼薩尼約

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速： 80   kt ( CAT.1 )
海平面最低氣壓：978 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
94E.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-10.0N-90.0W


NHC:30%

1. Shower activity is showing some signs of organization in association
with a broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Upper-level winds are expected to
be conducive, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few
days while this system moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 090330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 95.3W TO 13.2N 97.9W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 090300Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 96.0W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 96.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND BROAD
CONVECTIVE BANDING. NUMEROUS PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE
IMPROVED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100330Z.//
NNNN

NHC評Medium

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has
changed little in organization. However, environmental conditions
remain conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next
two to three days while the this system moves slowly northwestward
or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

t02436

NHC 15Z命名 Carlos
巔峰暫時上望75節

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The organization of the tropical cyclone has gradually increased,
with a curved band of deep convection wrapping more than half way
around the system's center.  The intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt
based upon a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak estimates with
consideration that the pattern recognition methods were apparently
a bit biased high in comparison with the ASCAT scatterometer
winds overnight.  Thus the system is upgraded to Carlos, the third
tropical storm of the season in the Eastern North Pacific.

Even though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely
to continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of
northeasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three
days.  At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as
Carlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge.
However, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude
substantial intensification.  Given that Carlos' track now is
projected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least
the short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect
the system.  The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend
of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly
lower than that from the previous advisory.

Carlos is moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt.  Shortly, a
developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause the steering
pattern to weaken and Carlos should meander northward for the
next couple of days.  In three to four days, a deep-layered ridge
will become re-established north of Carlos and help propel it
northwest or west-northwestward at a slow forward speed,
paralleling the southwestern Mexican coast.  The official track
prediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and
is just slightly southwest of that from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 13.6N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN

蜜露

昨天的底層本來建立.後來破了..
現在又開始重新建造底層. 圍著底層眼

暫時上望Cat.2

t02436

NHC 15Z報評價65節
升格C1

成為東太史上第二早出現第三個颶風

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged
eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery.  In addition,
radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become
established, although it is still open on the north side.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial
intensity.

After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a
northwestward drift.  For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge
over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the
west-northwest.  Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward.
However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected
yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.  Track guidance has been steadily shifting
eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While
I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has
been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico.
Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast.

Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with
decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will
occur over the next day or so.  However, there is very poor
agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing
atmospheric factors and possible land interaction.  The new NHC
forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from
the previous one.  It is worth noting that the normally
conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction.

With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on
record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern
Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

蜜露

颱風發展已經沒什麼希望了..

底層崩毀.. 疑似是冷水翻表面所造成的減弱