95W 低緯對流散亂

t02436 · 2015-5-12 09:53

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-5-17 10:22 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：95 W
擾動編號日期：2015 年 05 月 12 日 09 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 05 月 17 日 09 時
95W.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.4N.176E

t02436 · 2015-5-13 16:35

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 0.9N 174.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 408 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR THE EQUATOR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODELS PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN 72 HOURS.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

ben811018 · 2015-5-14 23:08

現在緯度只有１.１度，非常接近赤道~

t02436 · 2015-5-15 00:17

編號95W後仍未超越過北緯2度

95W INVEST 150514 1200 1.1N  173.2E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150514 0600 .9N  173.5E WPAC 15  1007
95W INVEST 150514 0000 .8N  173.8E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150513 1800 .7N  174.1E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150513 1200 .8N  174.4E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150513 0600 .9N  174.7E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150513 0000 1.1N  175.3E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150512 1800 1.4N  175.6E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150512 1200 1.6N  175.9E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150512 0600 1.7N  176.4E WPAC 15  1010
95W INVEST 150512 0000 1.8N  176.9E WPAC 15  1010

SSD 15Z 定位在3.8N，分析T1.5

TXPQ22 KNES 141538
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B.  14/1501Z
C.  3.8N
D.  171.5E
E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LOCATION BASED ON SWIR. BANDING WRAPS SLIGHTLY GREATER
THAN 2/10 FOR A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...VELASCO

JMA預估15日00Z前有機會提升為熱帶性低氣壓。

t02436 · 2015-5-15 14:08

JTWC取消評級

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 0.9N
173.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMA預報改為16日00Z 升低壓區

SSD 14日20Z發出最後分析

TXPQ22 KNES 142113
TCSWNP
CCA

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B.  14/2032Z
C.  4.9N
D.  170.8E
E.  FIVE/MTSAT

F.  TOO WEAK

G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTION IS FOR COMMENTS.  THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK
TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF MEASURABLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
POSITION GIVEN FOR ILL DEFINED LLC.  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI