t02436

基本資料    
編號　　　　：95 S
擾動編號日期：2015 年 04 月 11 日 07 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 04 月 18 日 14 時

95S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10.5S.99.1E

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S 92.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH
EMBEDDED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POINT SOURCE LOCATED ABOUT THREE DEGREES
TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 27-28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS BROAD AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.