23P.Solo 環境轉差持續減弱

krichard2011 · 2015-4-9 11:52

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-4-14 00:56 編輯

  二級熱帶氣旋
編號：15 F ( 23 P )
名稱：Solo

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 04 月 09 日 11 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 04 月 10 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 04 月 13 日 19 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速 /海平面最低氣壓
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  55 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC) : 55 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：985 百帕

討論帖圖片
94P.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-9.0S-164.0E

以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow · 2015-4-10 03:30

一下就 TCFA 了，也成了熱帶低壓 15F。:o

GALE WARNING 001 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 09/1806 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F CENTRE [1000PA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.7S 161.1E AT
091700UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 40 TO 70 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
CENTRE.

AREAS OF GALES MOVING WITH TD15F.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

krichard2011 · 2015-4-10 10:30

JTWC 第一報一口氣將強度提升到45KT
後期暫上看 75KT

蜜露 · 2015-4-10 11:16

發覺祂增強速度目前滿快的,JTWC先升格23P

FMS還沒升.

目標是朝著新喀里多尼亞方向前進 , 澳式Cat.2的強度

Meow · 2015-4-10 16:06

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2015-4-10 16:43 編輯

從擾動到命名只花一天，現在是熱帶氣旋 Solo，可能將直襲新喀里多尼亞。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 10/0802 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 160.3E AT
100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST SEMICIRCLE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH THE INNER MOST BAND WRAPPING AROUND LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT HAS DECREASED
IN AERIAL EXTEND IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SOLO LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. SST AROUND 31
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED BAND WITH A 0.6
WRAP, THUS YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 16.6S 160.4E MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 18.1S 161.0E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.4S 162.4E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 20.7S 164.5E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.

Meow · 2015-4-12 17:15

已正式轉化，還沒到達回歸線。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 12/0813 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 15F CENTRE [1002HPA] EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO
WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.4S 167.4E AT 120600UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD15F MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS.

MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 040 TO 090
NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. WINDS DECREASING
TO 30 KNOTS BY 121200 UTC.

SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING INTO A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.