Meow

啼吸誒腐誒來了



WTPN21 PGTW 261030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.8N 162.3E TO 8.0N 155.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 160.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N
160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 260853Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEPENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271030Z.//
NNNN

zjk369

GFS估計梅莎強度達強烈颱風

04W FOUR
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 26, 2015:


Location: 6.7°N 158.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

t02436

JMA發佈GW

熱帯低気圧
平成27年03月27日10時20分 発表

<27日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 6度55分(6.9度)
東経 157度40分(157.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<28日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 7度00分(7.0度)
東経 156度00分(156.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

JTWC升格04W

krichard2011

JTWC 預測圖出來了
初報上看C3 100 KT

ben811018

日本氣象廳針發出ＧＷ，同時聯合颱風警報中心（美軍，ＪＴＷＣ）升格為０４Ｗ，預估今年編號第四號颱風「梅莎」將在未來２４小時內誕生！


０４Ｗ目前位於西太遠洋低緯度海域，距離台灣還非常遙遠，經過幾天整理及醞釀，環流結構逐漸完整，低層環流中心確立。０４Ｗ目前位處大氣環境良好，前方垂直風切弱，跨赤道水氣持續支援，強度將逐漸增強，有機會挑戰中度颱風等級。


以目前最新資料研判，０４Ｗ將沿著副熱帶高壓邊緣偏西進行，下週一通過關島南方海面。目前有數值預報指出，０４Ｗ通過呂宋島後將往北靠近台灣，不過因為時間還久，變數相當高，須持續留意觀察。

ben811018

EC最新一報持續支持04W通過呂宋島後將北轉靠近台灣

ben811018

最新出爐的EC系集~~~~~

ha093405

好奇心作祟，稍微整理了一下四月侵台颱風如圖表列，其中1967年衛萊特颱風正巧於當年清明節過後影響台灣，不過在接近台灣時已減弱為熱帶性低氣壓，這次未來準颱風梅莎走向動見觀瞻，希望能為台灣帶來降水紓解旱象。
http://ptdt.com.tw/forum.php?mod=attachment&aid=NTA1OTJ8MmNjNjI4ZjdhZjMwNTZjMWNhMjFiZDY4ZGJkMDU0OTN8MTczNDg1MDU1Mg%3D%3D&request=yes&_f=.png