t02436

  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號：12 F ( 20 P )
名稱：Reuben

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 03 月 20 日 23 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 03 月 22 日 08 時
轉化日期　　：2015 年 03 月 23 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)：40 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC) ：45 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：990 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
98P.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-14.9S-178.8W


以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6S 178.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. THE BROAD
CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE HOWEVER STILL REMAINS VERY
ELONGATED. A 200204Z AMSU-B SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AND A
200008Z RSCAT SHOWS A MAX OF 20 KNOTS OF WINDS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

FMS昨天下午編號12F

WWPS21 NFFN 190900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 19/0943 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S
174.5W AT 190600 UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. ORGANISATION REMAINS
POOR AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSE LLCC IN THE PAST
6 TO 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM  AND INITIALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWEST THAN GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

今天升格熱帶低壓

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 20/0901 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.0
178.0W AT 200600 UTC. SLOW MOVING. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR AND
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSE LLCC IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

JTWC分析T1.5
SSD分析T2.0

TPPS10 PGTW 200628 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (E OF NADI)
B. 20/0532Z
C. 16.80S
D. 177.83W
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   CHAPPOTIN

TXPS23 KNES 200654
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98P)
B.  20/0532Z
C.  17.1S
D.  177.8W
E.  THREE/MTSAT
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 IS BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS
2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RAMIREZ

t02436

JTWC 22Z 升評Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S
178.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 177.4W, APPROXIMATELY 311 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201932Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

01Z 發佈TCFA










風場掃出30kts

t02436

JTWC升格20P
上望45Kts


FMS暫上望40KT

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 21/1308 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 177.2W
AT 211200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY NORTH-NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP YIELDS
DT=2.5, PT=2.0, MET=2.5.FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 22.5S 176.5W MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 23.7S 175.9W MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 24.6S 175.8W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 24.8S 176.0W MOV S AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 212000 UTC.  

t02436

FMS 00Z命名Reuben
一樣上望40kts

GALE WARNING 041  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/0043 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE REUBEN CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.2 SOUTH 175.6 WEST AT 220000 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 23.2S 175.6W AT 220000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
40 KNOTS BY 230000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.8S 174.8W AT 221200 UTC
              AND NEAR 25.8S 174.5W AT 230000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 040.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 22/0139 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE REUBEN CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 175.6W
AT 220000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING  SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
06 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
40 KNOTS BY 230000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT'
                       AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT'
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT'
                       AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN LAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING
TO WRAP AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12
HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65
WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 24.8S 174.8W MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 25.8S 174.5W MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 26.4S 174.6W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 26.6S 174.7W MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE REUBEN
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 220800 UTC.  

t02436

FMS 12Z 發出最後一報
18Z UTC 交由紐西蘭氣象局發報

GALE WARNING 043  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/1256 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE REUBEN CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
25.4 SOUTH 174.4 WEST AT 221200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.4S 174.4W at 221200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.0S 174.3W AT 230000 UTC
              AND NEAR 25.8S 174.9W AT 231200 UTC.


THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 042.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC WELLINGTON.

PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR FUTURE WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE REUBEN
WILL REST WITH WELLINGTON.