18P.Nathan 漫長生命史三度登陸澳洲

ben811018 · 2015-3-18 20:46

風眼雖然出現了~而且還頗清晰但從下午多頻來看還是缺少深層對流進一步鞏固

蜜露 · 2015-3-19 22:44

內森開始進岸增強了...準備登陸澳洲. 算是個小型的颱風 (對喔..那裡稱熱帶氣旋)
她所經過的地方.可能是Cape Melville (就是俗稱失落的世界)生態的地方

krichard2011 · 2015-3-20 00:00

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-3-20 00:03 編輯

稍早強度再提升來到澳式4級
風眼逐漸清空算是在登陸前上演一場近岸爆發
目前附近以測得陣風79KT 估計約會在清晨左右登陸...

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 2:00 am EST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 15 kilometres of 14.8 degrees South 145.5 degrees East, estimated to be 25 kilometres north northeast of Cape Flattery and 85 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown.

Movement: west at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the far northeast Queensland coast. The system has intensified to category 4, and is expected to cross at this intensity between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery during this morning.

t02436 · 2015-3-20 00:03

14Z BoM升格四級強烈熱帶氣旋
即將登陸

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 1:00 am EST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 15 kilometres of 14.7 degrees South 145.6 degrees East, estimated to be 35 kilometres northeast of Cape Flattery and 90 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown.

Movement: west at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the far northeast Queensland coast. The system has intensified to category 4, and is expected to cross at this intensity between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery during this morning.

	Time (EST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am March 20	4	14.7S	145.6E	15
+6hr	7 am March 20	3	14.7S	144.7E	40
+12hr	1 pm March 20	2	14.6S	143.7E	60
+18hr	7 pm March 20	tropical low	14.5S	142.8E	85
+24hr	1 am March 21	tropical low	14.3S	141.8E	105
+36hr	1 pm March 21	1	13.9S	140.0E	130
+48hr	1 am March 22	1	13.2S	138.0E	165
+60hr	1 pm March 22	1	12.5S	136.4E	185
+72hr	1 am March 23	1	12.1S	135.3E	220

Cape Flattery站點
目前觀測到最大持續風速53kts
最低氣壓994.4百帕

實測資料

Meow · 2015-3-20 00:33

一張圖說明 Nathan 和 Pam 有何不同

krichard2011 · 2015-3-20 08:18

Nathan 已於當地時間清晨 4點登陸Cape Melville 與 Cape Flattery之間
Cape Flattery 的測站測到最大風速 65KT 陣風 89KT

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan made landfall at approximately 4am between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery on the far northeast Queensland coast as a category 4 cyclone. It has since moved inland and weakened to a category 3 cyclone. The cyclone is expected to continue its westward movement today while weakening further.

t02436 · 2015-3-21 09:44

中心凌晨進入卡奔塔莉亞灣
00Z報開始由TCWC布里斯本交TCWC達爾文發報
預估還會增強至二級熱帶氣旋

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0133 UTC 21/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 140.2E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [289 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  21/0600: 13.5S 139.3E:    035 [070]:  045  [085]:  996
+12:  21/1200: 13.2S 138.4E:    050 [090]:  050  [095]:  994
+18:  21/1800: 12.9S 137.4E:    060 [115]:  060  [110]:  988
+24:  22/0000: 12.4S 136.5E:    075 [135]:  055  [100]:  988
+36:  22/1200: 11.5S 135.0E:    095 [175]:  045  [085]:  996
+48:  23/0000: 10.9S 133.9E:    115 [210]:  035  [065]: 1000
+60:  23/1200: 10.7S 133.0E:    130 [245]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72:  24/0000: 10.8S 132.3E:    150 [280]:  030  [055]: 1002
+96:  25/0000: 12.0S 131.5E:    195 [365]:  025  [045]: 1002
+120: 26/0000: 12.7S 129.9E:    285 [525]:  020  [035]: 1005
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Nathan has now moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria and is
redeveloping. Confidence in location is high, based on visible satellite imagery
and radar.

Satellite imagery shows improved convection yielding a DT=3.0. PAT agrees but
MET is not possible due to length of time spent over Cape York Peninsula in the
last 24 hours.

Confidence in the forecast track across the Gulf of Carpentaria remains high
with the firm mid-level ridge expected to remain in place, and NWP model tracks
showing tight clustering as a consequence. Tropical Cyclone Nathan is in a
favourable environment for further development in the Gulf of Carpentaria with
sea surface temperatures around 30 degrees and CIMMS winds indicating 10 knots
of shear along the forecast track and good upper divergence on the southern side
due to an upper trough.

Most NWP guidance concur that redevelopment should occur quickly and at this
stage it is anticipated it is likely to reach high end category 2 strength prior
to crossing the northeast Top End on Sunday morning.

In the longer term, Tropical Cyclone Nathan is expected to weaken due to
increase in shear and the entrainment of dry air.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.