t02436

JTWC 06Z給出145Kts



FMS則是提升到130Kts
12小時內衝擊巔峰135Kts

** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0722 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [900HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S 168.7E AT 130600UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 130 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
                       AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EYE WELL DEFINED. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. PAM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE, COLD DARK GREY SURROUND,
YIELDS DT=7.0, MET =7.0 AND PT=6.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 19.0S 169.0E MOV AT 03KT WITH 135 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 22.1S 170.3E MOV AT 03KT WITH 120 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 25.6S 172.7E MOV  AT 03KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 29.4S 175.8E MOV  AT 03KT WITH 090 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 131400 UTC.

維拉港實測972.5hPa
氣壓持續下探




















今日Aqua



南北半球四旋共舞



維拉港實測網址
http://goo.gl/kqHV4l

四旋MASAT-IR

http://www.alanbanks.org.uk/MTSAT-IR.jpg

自動更新雲圖

jsd6660

krichard2011 發表於 2015-3-12 21:13
斐濟瘋狂了 升格五級強烈熱帶氣旋
且更是上看 130KT 如成真
如成真將成為斐濟評價史上最強之一

CX723-A330

135kts
新一代南太風王誕生

HURRICANE WARNING 031 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/1302 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [899HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5
SOUTH 168.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.5S 168.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS
BY 141200 UTC.

krichard2011

由於原圖實在是太亮了
於是用了 Photoshop 稍微處理了一下...
比較能凸顯風眼及雲頂的細節

開梅

潘恩旋風成為新一代南太風王？南太風王我記得是2006年莫妮卡啊？

蜜露

底層已經好很多了...不過掠過不少島嶼..對流受到地形影響而減弱

風眼不穩,只清空+8度左右...

雖然南半球超越Zoe和Monica
但Pam 我覺得135kt給高了

或許是Zoe年代有點太遠了,如同MFR分析Gafilo一樣道理.

像Pam這種情形, 應該和Eunice一樣給出900hPa 130kt 感覺還比較合理

Meow

斐濟認為還沒到頂，預測最大風速將到 140 節，關鍵就在風眼能否達到 WMG。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/1420 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [899HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 168.7E AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 135 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
       AND WITHIN 070 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
       AND WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
       AND WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
       AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
       AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
       AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH EYE DISCERNABLE ON MTSAT EIR IMAGE.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD IN
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. PAM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY A
NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO
200HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND COLD DARK GREY SURROUND, YEILDS DT=7.0,
MET=7.0,PT=6.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 20.1S 169.4E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 140
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 23.4S 171.4E MOV SSE AT 16 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 27.4S 174.7E MOV SSE AT 19 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 31.6S 178.2E MOV SSE AT 21K T WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 132000 UTC.

zjk369