13P.Marcia 登陸前猛爆增強轉化副熱帶風暴

Meow · 2015-2-19 15:52

推測正在槽前爆發，增強相當迅速，35 公里外的 Creal Reef 已經實測到持續風速 137 km/h、氣壓 981.6 百帕。

Meow · 2015-2-19 16:05

最新報文升格 Marcia 到四級強烈熱帶氣旋，風速 90 節，和 Kate 並列。

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 6:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 9 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South, 150.6 degrees East , 160 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and 280 kilometres north of Yeppoon .
Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia has now intensified to a category 4 cyclone, and continues to move west-southwest towards the Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected to turn more southwest during the next few hours and make landfall between Mackay and Gladstone early on Friday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

ben811018 · 2015-2-19 16:35

連續動畫～12P.Lam也一同入鏡囉！

Meow · 2015-2-19 17:08

每個小時都在驚奇啊……最大風速 100 節，上望五級強烈熱帶氣旋。

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 7:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 9 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South, 150.5 degrees East , 150 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and 285 kilometres north of Yeppoon .
Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia, a category 4 cyclone, continues to intensify as it moves west-southwest towards the Queensland coast. The cyclone's movement has slowed in recent hours, and it is expected to turn more southwest during the next few hours and make landfall between Mackay and Gladstone early on Friday. It is now forecast to reach category 5 by landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

Meow · 2015-2-19 21:00

Marcia 從昨天凌晨命名有懸念，到現在預期超越 Yasi，堪稱南半球暴發戶經典。風眼已達 WMG，W 環也正重新加寬，登陸前還是有機會達到更高強度。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1222 UTC 19/02/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.8S
Longitude: 150.6E
Location Accuracy: within 5 nm [9 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [225 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots [270 km/h]
Central Pressure: 940 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.0/D3.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/1800: 21.9S 150.3E:    035 [065]:  115  [215]:  928
+12:  20/0000: 22.8S 150.2E:    045 [085]:  090  [165]:  951
+18:  20/0600: 23.7S 150.3E:    050 [095]:  055  [105]:  979
+24:  20/1200: 24.6S 150.7E:    060 [110]:  040  [080]:  989
+36:  21/0000: 26.5S 151.9E:    075 [135]:  030  [055]:  997
+48:  21/1200: 27.8S 153.6E:    095 [170]:  030  [055]:  996
+60:  22/0000: 28.9S 154.4E:    110 [210]:  030  [055]:  995
+72:  22/1200: 29.3S 155.7E:    130 [245]:  030  [055]:  994
+96:  23/1200: 28.9S 157.2E:    175 [325]:  030  [055]:  994
+120: 24/1200: 27.8S 159.4E:    265 [490]:  030  [055]:  995
REMARKS:
Marcia underwent a period of very rapid intensification earlier Thursday. CIMSS
winds show approximately 10 knots of E/NE deep layer shear over the system.

The satellite signature improved markedly during the day with an eye becoming
visible from about 03Z, and it remains clear. Confidence of the LLCC position is
therefore high.

The 1032Z MTSAT EIR image exhibited an OW eye with an LG surround, and the radar
over the past two hours has suggested evidence of an eye-wall weakness in the
northern and eastern flanks, though this could be due to radar attenuation. The
DT averaged over the past 3 hours is 6.0, but has been in a declining trend due
to the possible eye-wall weakness.  CI held up at 6.5 due to constraints.

Recent movement has been in the forecast SSW direction.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.