shadow16

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
   編號  : 13 U ( 12 P )
   名稱  : Lam


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 02 月 12 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 02 月 17 日 02 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 02 月 23 日 09 時
登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 北領地 米林金比

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)   ：100  kts ( CAT.3 )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) ：100  kts ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓       : 943 百帕

  討論帖圖片  



以上資料來自 :BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

krichard2011

螺旋性漸漸有了 結構雖鬆散
不過有逐漸整合起來的跡象
數值皆非常支持這系統的發展
必且可能在登陸前上演近岸爆發
GFS後期也預測出了相當奇葩的路徑
在澳洲陸地上一路挺進到出海後 重新增強...





P.S.
GFS 這報其實相當精采
除了這個之外 還預測之後還有一個系統
很奇葩得登陸後在陸地上增強 但不確定是否屬於熱帶系統

Meow

BoM 竟然選這時間發報……目前 25 節，預測 36 小時後命名，暫時上望二級熱帶氣旋。

JTWC 也立即發佈 TCFA。

krichard2011

BoM稍早編號13U
目前上看澳式C4

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0741 UTC 16/02/2015
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 140.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [322 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  16/1200: 10.9S 140.0E:     035 [070]:  025  [045]:  998
+12:  16/1800: 10.8S 139.9E:     050 [090]:  035  [065]:  995
+18:  17/0000: 10.8S 139.6E:     060 [115]:  035  [065]:  995
+24:  17/0600: 10.7S 139.4E:     075 [135]:  040  [075]:  992
+36:  17/1800: 10.8S 138.9E:     095 [175]:  050  [095]:  986
+48:  18/0600: 11.0S 138.5E:     115 [210]:  055  [100]:  982
+60:  18/1800: 11.6S 138.4E:     130 [245]:  070  [130]:  971
+72:  19/0600: 12.2S 138.3E:     150 [280]:  080  [150]:  963
+96:  20/0600: 14.1S 137.7E:     195 [365]:  100  [185]:  945
+120: 21/0600: 16.0S 135.7E:     285 [525]:  060  [110]:  980
REMARKS:
Initial classification of this system as T1.0 at 15/1200Z. By 15/1800Z
convection had begun to focus about the mid level circulation in the northeast
Gulf of Carpentaria, with the low level centre located further east near the
coast of Cape York.  During the day today, the low level circulation has moved
closer to the mid level centre.  Deep convection has become more organised, with
good curvature evident on latest visible satellite imagery.

Current location is based on visible MTSAT imagery, assisted by the 16/0254Z
AMSR2 pass.  The low level centre is less than 0.5 degrees from the dense
convection on visible imagery, yielding at DT of 2.5.  The history of the system
over land gives an MET of 1.0 and current PAT is 2.0.  FT is 2.5 based on DT.
30 knot winds observed on the 16/0036Z ASCAT pass confirm this assessment.

The system is expected to be slow moving in the short term as the main steering
influences of the ridge to the south and the developing monsoon to the north are
finely balanced.  In the longer term, weakening of the ridge to the south and
interactions with an upper trough should yield a slow southerly movement.
Significant variation in NWP output from run to run over the last 48-72 hours
indicate uncertainty in the forecast track, though indications from 00Z model
runs received thus far are that models are beginning to align.  The broadscale
environment is favourable for intensification and the forecast track
incorporates development at the standard rate.  

Meow

BoM 命名 Lam，預測將以四級強烈熱帶氣旋侵襲北領地。JTWC 預期的沒那麼高，而且跟隨 GFS 路線。



IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1954 UTC 16/02/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.6S
Longitude: 139.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  17/0000: 11.6S 139.5E:     040 [080]:  045  [085]:  989
+12:  17/0600: 11.5S 139.3E:     055 [100]:  050  [095]:  986
+18:  17/1200: 11.4S 139.1E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  986
+24:  17/1800: 11.5S 138.8E:     080 [145]:  055  [100]:  983
+36:  18/0600: 11.7S 138.3E:     100 [185]:  070  [130]:  971
+48:  18/1800: 12.2S 138.0E:     120 [220]:  080  [150]:  963
+60:  19/0600: 12.8S 137.6E:     140 [255]:  090  [165]:  954
+72:  19/1800: 13.6S 137.3E:     155 [290]:  100  [185]:  944
+96:  20/1800: 15.9S 135.2E:     200 [370]:  080  [150]:  965
+120: 21/1800: 18.2S 132.3E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]: 1004
REMARKS:
Position based on an extrapolation of the 15:26Z RapidScat and the merged Gove
and Weipa radars. Past movement has been slowly towards the southwest.

Intensity is set at 40kn [10 min] based on RapidScat image indicating an area of
gales to the north and south of the system [although there are a couple of non
rain affected winds to 45kn].

The LLCC has become covered in a cold cloud shield making a DT difficult to
assign. A shear pattern yields at DT of 3.5 with the LLCC into the strong
gradient. MET is 2.5 to 3.0 based on a D to D+ trend. PAT is 3.0. FT and CI is
based on PAT. This is broadly consistent with NESDIS ADT at CI 3.3.

The tropical low is expected to move slowly west in the short term, closely
balanced between the main steering influences of the ridge to the south and the
developing monsoon to the north.  In the longer term, weakening of the ridge to
the south and interactions with an upper trough should yield a slow southerly
movement.

NWP output is beginning to favour a more westerly track as well, however there
still remains uncertainty. The broadscale environment is favourable for
intensification and the system is forecaster to development at the standard rate
until landfall.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

蜜露

GFS和BOM  預測的路徑. 都不大相同
但是拉姆所處的位置. 不論是GFS和BOM 都看好增強..

昨天爆對流,今天迅速發展.

但如果是走BOM那條. 強度會比較有趣.
卡奔塔利亞灣增強的例子也不少

例如2006 Monica  , 2005 Ingrid , 1984 Kathy 都有在卡奔塔利亞灣增強的舉例

Meow

又是個直接捲眼的。另外速報時間之前的美軍評價不要採信，因為大多會再修改。

Meow

Lam 是 2006 年 Monica 以來首個影響北領地的強烈熱帶氣旋。

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 1:30 pm CST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South, 136.8 degrees East , 135 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy Airport and 170 kilometres northeast of Elcho Island .
Movement: west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cycone Lam is expected to continue intensifying as it moves toward the west parallel to the coast before turning towards the southwest overnight.