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t02436 · 2015-2-2 11:46

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-2-4 22:57 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：90 P
擾動編號日期：2015 年 02 月 02 日 10 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 02 月 04 日 20 時

90P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.13.9S.177.9E

t02436 · 2015-2-2 20:43

FMS編號10F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S 176.4E AT
020600 UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONCIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436 · 2015-2-4 10:04

JTWC前天大幅修正定位
與FMS編號之10F為不同系統

昨天13Z評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.4S 179.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 134 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BROADLY
WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031001Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.