t02436

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：09 F ( 10 P )
名稱：Ola


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 27 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 01 月 31 日 05 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 02 月 04 日 03 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  80  kt
美國海軍 (JTWC) ： 90  kt ( CAT.2 )
紐西蘭氣象局(MSNZ)：45 kts ( TS ) - 註：2015.02.03-00Z UTC由紐西蘭接手
海平面最低氣壓   ： 955 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
99P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.15.4S.156.3E



以上資料來自：FMS、MSNZ、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
159.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291701Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW AS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

FMS 昨天12Z編號09F
預計明天升格命名

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/0158 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 160.8E
AT 300000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
06 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.  

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN LAST 18 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN LAST
18 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER PRIMARY BANDS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTEND TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC 17.0S 161.3E MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC 17.2S 161.7E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC 17.7S 161.9E MOV SE AT 02 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 18.4S 162.1E MOV SE AT 02 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300800 UTC.

北側風場掃出30Kts

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 301030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1S 161.8E TO 18.7S 162.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2S 162.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
161.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 162.0, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300740Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED CURVED-CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 300715Z WINDSAT IMAGE
SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOTS CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE DISTURBANCE SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED
CONVECTION AND PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311030Z.//
NNNN

t02436

JTWC 18Z升格10P
上望70Kts



FMS 21Z 命名Ola
暫時上望澳式C2

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/2300 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 161.6E
AT 302100 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 03
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.   

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL OF CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN LAST 24 HOURS WITH
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTEND TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP GIVING DT=3.0, PT AND MET AGREE.
THUS, YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 310900 UTC 18.6S 161.9E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 312100 UTC 19.4S 162.3E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010900 UTC 20.5S 162.6E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 012100 UTC 21.6S 162.7E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 310200 UTC.

底層風眼建立當中(?

Meow

Ola 成為本年度南太平洋第一個強烈熱帶氣旋，但是不看好繼續增強。



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0751 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 965HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4S 162.1E AT 010600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.  
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE
47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES
ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON AN
EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG GIVING DT=4.5, PT AND MT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAKENING TREND.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 21.7S 162.1E MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 22.8S 161.9E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 23.7S 161.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 24.5S 160.9E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
0114000 UTC.

Meow

現在仍是熱帶氣旋，即將越過南緯 30 度。

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 036
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone OLA [995hPa] centre was located near 29.3 South 163.2 East at 031200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 29.3S 163.2E at 031200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south 9 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the southwest semicircle and within 45 nautical miles of centre in the northeast semicircle.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 032.