krichard2011

Meow 發表於 2015-1-28 13:57
0530Z 的雲圖顯示 Eunice 可能要形成雲捲風眼。

其實稍早就有疑似捲出雲捲風眼來了
最近一個多小時對流爆起來又被蓋住了而已
疑似在建立CDO

krichard2011

看似要來真的...
中心再度轉出疑似風眼的結構
JTWC 升格CAT.1 MFR 也調強至STS

SH, 09, 2015012806,   , BEST,   0, 138S,  645E,  65,  974, TY,  34, NEQ,   85,   45,   60,   60, 1007,  200,  15,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     EUNICE, D,
SH, 09, 2015012806,   , BEST,   0, 138S,  645E,  65,  974, TY,  50, NEQ,   30,   25,   20,   30, 1007,  200,  15,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     EUNICE, D,

krichard2011

最新一報報文終於出來了
MFR認為這是一個粗糙的風眼
不過在最近幾個小時 有越來越好的趨勢
風眼與CDO大致已建構完畢
整體來說現在已經有模有樣的了
現在就差進一步將風眼清空
晚上一報不排除 就有機會升格 TC 了

文中也提到
在移動的過程當中 環境將越來越有助於增強
系統東方的空層風場預期將加強此系統的極向流出
使這系統能維持在一個幅散相當良好的環境
此外路徑OHC也相當適合 並有Rapid Intensification(R.I.)猛爆性增強的趨勢

WTIO30 FMEE 280724
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EUNICE)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 64.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 250 SW: 200 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 60 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/28 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/29 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/29 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/30 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+

EUNICE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME EVIDENT SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND
A RAGGED EYE IS NOW APPARENT ON THE VERY LAST IMAGES. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON GEOSTAT IMAGERY WITH A RATHER WELL DEFINED CENTER.
THE COMPLETE ASCAT PASS OF THIS MORNING WAS ALSO USED TO CALIBRATE THE
WINDS RADII. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS ON THE UPPER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES (50-57 KT 10 MIN WINDS) IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SATCON OF 0256Z AT 53 KT (10 MIN WINDS).

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MORE AND MORE CONDUCTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS, UNDER THE RIDGE, THE WVS SHOULD KEEP WEAK UNTIL
SUNDAY AND A SECOND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TOWARDS THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND TO ADD TO THE ALREADY EXISTING POLEWARD ONE,
THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
CONSIDERING THIS ELEMENTS AND TAKING PROFIT OF A FAVORABLE HEAT
OCEANIC CONTENTS UNTIL FRIDAY LATE, SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TENDENCY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

蜜露

  猛爆發展進度算快了..預測上看好強過旁邊那隻名字很怪的Diamondra (戴夢德拉)

上望Cat.3  105kts

2天內的預測

Meow

MFR 升格 Eunice 到熱帶氣旋，評價最大風速 70 節，不過上望 100 節就沒有 Bansi 高了。JTWC 評價最大風速 85 節。

krichard2011

轉載自Twitter
兩者的雲系幾乎連在一起 可惜原圖(好像不提供轉載)繞了一圈總算找到載點 = =

以下原圖網址
http://t.co/YRJ9kXobua

krichard2011

稍早風眼一度出現缺陷
但現在已修補完成 而且更完整了
是個偏小的風眼 整體核心也相當小巧集中
可見光風眼隱約可見

krichard2011

是否巔峰就真的只能達到C4
我覺得話不能說得太早
從紅外線雲圖來看 看似CDO對流弱了些
但是底層卻非常扎實
不排除入夜之後能靠著對流日夜變化的機制有再度加強的機會
至於風眼也已經清空 風眼雲頂溫度已經升至 WMG
周圍環境除了西側有大片乾區之外
北側水氣供應還是相當豐沛 幅合與幅散也OK
路徑也預期會維持在風切偏低的區域
除非中途發生眼牆置換 否則未來這一兩天
發展方面應該還是具有蠻大的潛力的...