07P.Niko 變性為溫帶氣旋

shadow16 · 2015-1-20 17:55

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-1-25 13:05 編輯

  二級熱帶氣旋
編號  : 06 F ( 07 P )
名稱  : Niko

基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 20 日 17 時
命名日期    ：2015 年 01 月 21 日 05 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 25 日 10 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ： 55  kts  ( TS )
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) ： 55  kts  (  CAT.2 )
紐西蘭氣象局(MSNZ)：35 kts( TS ) - 註：2015.01.23 18Z UTC由紐西蘭接手
海平面最低氣壓    ：982 百帕

  討論帖圖片
95P.INVEST.15kts.996mb.12.1S.150.0W

以上資料來自 :FMS、JTWC、MSNZ、颱風論壇編輯製作

蜜露 · 2015-1-20 21:37

似乎底層掃出來..認為這可能是眼..

哇..算是中南太的遠洋了..

JMA CWB打開全球的衛星雲圖. 也只顯示邊緣位置了

krichard2011 · 2015-1-20 22:13

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-1-20 22:51 編輯

FMS 已經編號06F
稍早JTWC也直接評級 Medium 了

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/0924 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.9S 152.0W
AT 200600UTC.
TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED GOES IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION PERSISTANT IN PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN EASTERN FLANK BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD06F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S 151.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 207 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 200941Z TRMM 37 HZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC. A 200722Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING WITH 25 TO
30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2015-1-21 01:47

JTWC編號五個小時後發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 201530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 151.8W TO 17.3S 147.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
201500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
151.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
151.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 151.0W, APPROXIMATELY 207 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). A 201121Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A MIDGET SYSTEM, APPROXIMATELY 140-NM DIAMETER, WITH TCB
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 200809Z ASCAT
AMBIGUITY IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE CENTER, UNDER THE
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE TO
THE MIDGET, TIGHTLY-CONSOLIDATED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, WARNINGS ARE
IMMINENT AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 211530Z.//
NNNN

底層相當札實

調升12Z強度至35Kts 即將升格

SH, 95, 2015011912, , BEST, 0, 114S, 1535W,  15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
SH, 95, 2015011918, , BEST, 0, 116S, 1529W,  20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
SH, 95, 2015012000, , BEST, 0, 120S, 1522W,  25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
SH, 95, 2015012006, , BEST, 0, 123S, 1516W,  30, 1000, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
SH, 95, 2015012012, , BEST, 0, 131S, 1510W,  35,  996, TS,  34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006,  150,  45, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0,    INVEST, M,

t02436 · 2015-1-21 10:12

JTWC上望90Kts
FMS命名NIKO

GALE WARNING 016  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 21/0109 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5
SOUTH 150.2 WEST AT 210000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 14.5S 150.2W at 210000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 220000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMI-CIRCLE
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMI-CIRCLE


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.4S 148.9W AT 211200 UTC
            AND NEAR 16.9S 147.4W AT 220000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 015.

Meow · 2015-1-24 04:07

紐西蘭接手發報。別懷疑，沒有路徑圖，報文就這樣。

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 249
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone NIKO [994hPa] centre was located near 25.3 South 145.7 West at 231800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 25.3S 145.7W at 231800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsouthwest 15 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to northeast and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southeast semicircle and within 45 nautical miles of centre in the sector from southwest through northwest to north.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 247.